Pittsburgh Penguins at Edmonton Oilers, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors EDM; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Penguins- Anthony ManthaGoals2
- Jack St. IvanyAssists2
- Anthony ManthaPoints2
Oilers- Matt SavoieGoals1
- Mattias JanmarkAssists1
- Jake WalmanPoints1
Scoring summary
- P313:57Matt Savoie Goal (9) Wrist Shot, assists: Evan Bouchard (38), Mattias Ekholm (19)6–2
- P32:50Egor Chinakhov Goal (8) Wrist Shot, assists: Thomas Novak (18), Jack St. Ivany (7)6–1
- P214:27Evgeni Malkin Goal (12) Backhand, assists: none5–1
- P212:29Rickard Rakell Goal (9) Wrist Shot, assists: Evgeni Malkin (27), Bryan Rust (21)4–1
- P25:19Jake Walman Goal (4) Wrist Shot, assists: Mattias Janmark (7)3–1
- P12:57Sidney Crosby Goal (27) Tip-In, assists: Ryan Shea (16), Jack St. Ivany (6)3–0
- P12:42Anthony Mantha Goal (16) Wrist Shot, assists: Justin Brazeau (10), Brett Kulak (5)2–0
- P12:20Anthony Mantha Goal (15) Tip-In, assists: Justin Brazeau (9), Connor Clifton (2)1–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P12:20Anthony Mantha Goal (15) Tip-In, assists: Justin Brazeau (9), Connor Clifton (2)PIT 1 – 0 EDM · PIT 37% → 52% +15PIT 37% → 52%+15 pts
- P12:42Anthony Mantha Goal (16) Wrist Shot, assists: Justin Brazeau (10), Brett Kulak (5)PIT 2 – 0 EDM · PIT 52% → 66% +14PIT 52% → 66%+14 pts
- P12:57Sidney Crosby Goal (27) Tip-In, assists: Ryan Shea (16), Jack St. Ivany (6)PIT 3 – 0 EDM · PIT 66% → 79% +12PIT 66% → 79%+12 pts
- P25:19Jake Walman Goal (4) Wrist Shot, assists: Mattias Janmark (7)PIT 3 – 1 EDM · EDM 12% → 24% +12EDM 12% → 24%+12 pts
- P212:29Rickard Rakell Goal (9) Wrist Shot, assists: Evgeni Malkin (27), Bryan Rust (21)PIT 4 – 1 EDM · PIT 80% → 92% +12PIT 80% → 92%+12 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Oilers 63%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 62.4% of 599 graded games.
- Market
- EDM 63%
- ML PIT +160 / EDM -192
- Pre-line forecast
- EDM 68%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- EDM 67%
- Ratings vs. market
- +3.9 pts
- EDM: Elo 67.0%, market 63.1%
- Fair odds
- EDM -171
- PIT +171 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- PIT 2.9 – 3.6 EDM
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | PIT | EDM | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1491 | 1541 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Rest | −30 | — | PIT on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Starting goalies | −5 | +4 | PIT: Arturs Silovs: team allows 0.12 more goals than with its usual starter (≈29 weighted starts) · EDM: Tristan Jarry: team allows 0.09 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈43 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | EDM +123 Elo | EDM 67.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | EDM 68.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | EDM 68.3% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | EDM 63.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| PIT | Stat | EDM |
|---|---|---|
| 13th of 323.3 | Goals scored | 3.45th of 32 |
| 13th of 323.0 | Goals allowed | 3.120th of 32 |
| 8th of 32+0.2 | Margin | +0.210th of 32 |
| 8th of 3251.3% | Shot share | 52.0%7th of 32 |
| 17th of 3289.8% | Save percentage | 89.1%23rd of 32 |
| 8th of 326–4 | Last 10 | 5–513th of 32 |
| 4th of 3213–10 | Road vs home | 12–1115th of 32 |
| 31st of 321494 | Opponent Elo | 149429th of 32 |
| 19th of 321491 | Elo rating | 15414th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  PIT |  EDM |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 30–19 | 21–30 |
| Last 10 | 7–3 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 8–13 | 16–27 |
| Underdog | 22–6 | 5–3 |
| Overs–unders | 25–24 | 28–23 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
PIT 1–4 EDM in their last 5 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 5.