Utah Mammoth at Carolina Hurricanes, NHL forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors CAR; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Mammoth- Kailer YamamotoGoals2
- Jack McBainAssists2
- Kailer YamamotoPoints3
Hurricanes- Andrei SvechnikovGoals2
- Andrei SvechnikovAssists1
- Shayne GostisbeherePoints3
Scoring summary
- P319:30Jordan Staal Goal (12) Tip-In, assists: Jordan Martinook (10), Jalen Chatfield (12)4–5
- P318:33Shayne Gostisbehere Goal (8) Snap Shot, assists: Jackson Blake (16), Jaccob Slavin (3)4–4
- P318:01Andrei Svechnikov Goal (20) Snap Shot, assists: Shayne Gostisbehere (27), Nikolaj Ehlers (27)4–3
- P37:11Michael Carcone Goal (11) Wrist Shot, assists: Jack McBain (13), Kailer Yamamoto (7)4–2
- P217:55JJ Peterka Goal (19) Snap Shot, assists: Barrett Hayton (11)3–2
- P217:36Shayne Gostisbehere Goal (7) Slap Shot, assists: Andrei Svechnikov (26), Seth Jarvis (17)2–2
- P28:24Kailer Yamamoto Goal (7) Wrist Shot, assists: Nick DeSimone (3), Michael Carcone (10)2–1
- P24:10Kailer Yamamoto Goal (6) Snap Shot, assists: Jack McBain (12)1–1
- P13:04Andrei Svechnikov Goal (19) Snap Shot, assists: none0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P28:24Kailer Yamamoto Goal (7) Wrist Shot, assists: Nick DeSimone (3), Michael Carcone (10)UTA 2 – 1 CAR · UTA 40% → 60% +20UTA 40% → 60%+20 pts
- P217:36Shayne Gostisbehere Goal (7) Slap Shot, assists: Andrei Svechnikov (26), Seth Jarvis (17)UTA 2 – 2 CAR · CAR 35% → 58% +23CAR 35% → 58%+23 pts
- P217:55JJ Peterka Goal (19) Snap Shot, assists: Barrett Hayton (11)UTA 3 – 2 CAR · UTA 42% → 65% +24UTA 42% → 65%+24 pts
- P318:33Shayne Gostisbehere Goal (8) Snap Shot, assists: Jackson Blake (16), Jaccob Slavin (3)UTA 4 – 4 CAR · CAR 1% → 52% +51CAR 1% → 52%+51 pts
- P319:30Jordan Staal Goal (12) Tip-In, assists: Jordan Martinook (10), Jalen Chatfield (12)UTA 4 – 5 CAR · CAR 51% → >99% +49CAR 51% → >99%+49 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Hurricanes 63%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 62.4% of 599 graded games.
- Market
- CAR 63%
- ML UTA +160 / CAR -192
- Pre-line forecast
- CAR 61%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CAR 60%
- Ratings vs. market
- −2.9 pts
- CAR: Elo 60.2%, market 63.1%
- Fair odds
- CAR -171
- UTA +171 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- UTA 2.9 – 3.6 CAR
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | UTA | CAR | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1517 | 1551 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +9 | +12 | UTA: Karel Vejmelka: team allows 0.22 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈43 weighted starts) · CAR: Brandon Bussi: team allows 0.30 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈19 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | CAR +72 Elo | CAR 60.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CAR 60.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CAR 60.7% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | CAR 63.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| UTA | Stat | CAR |
|---|---|---|
| 17th of 323.2 | Goals scored | 3.53rd of 32 |
| 3rd of 322.8 | Goals allowed | 2.97th of 32 |
| 5th of 32+0.4 | Margin | +0.63rd of 32 |
| 6th of 3252.4% | Shot share | 56.9%1st of 32 |
| 18th of 3289.7% | Save percentage | 89.1%23rd of 32 |
| 1st of 328–2 | Last 10 | 7–34th of 32 |
| 20th of 3213–16 | Road vs home | 18–103rd of 32 |
| 21st of 321499 | Opponent Elo | 150020th of 32 |
| 10th of 321517 | Elo rating | 15513rd of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  UTA |  CAR |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 24–29 | 20–32 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 12–22 | 18–30 |
| Underdog | 12–7 | 2–2 |
| Overs–unders | 27–26 | 27–25 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
UTA 1–1 CAR in their last 2 meetings; the forecast called 1 of 2.
