Utah Mammoth at Florida Panthers, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors FLA; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Mammoth- Sean DurziGoals1
- Sean DurziAssists1
- Sean DurziPoints2
Panthers- Cole SchwindtGoals1
- Brad MarchandAssists1
- Carter VerhaeghePoints1
Scoring summary
- P319:44Carter Verhaeghe Goal (16) Snap Shot, assists: Sam Bennett (22), Brad Marchand (25)4–3
- P319:04Barrett Hayton Goal (7) Wrist Shot, assists: Kevin Stenlund (8)4–2
- P311:05Mikhail Sergachev Goal (8) Tip-In, assists: Sean Durzi (13)3–2
- P29:55Cole Schwindt Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: none2–2
- P23:46Sean Durzi Goal (4) Wrist Shot, assists: Jack McBain (11), Michael Carcone (9)2–1
- P22:52Sandis Vilmanis Goal (1) Snap Shot, assists: none1–1
- P115:46Nick Schmaltz Goal (19) Backhand, assists: none1–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P115:46Nick Schmaltz Goal (19) Backhand, assists: noneUTA 1 – 0 FLA · UTA 41% → 58% +17UTA 41% → 58%+17 pts
- P22:52Sandis Vilmanis Goal (1) Snap Shot, assists: noneUTA 1 – 1 FLA · FLA 40% → 58% +18FLA 40% → 58%+18 pts
- P23:46Sean Durzi Goal (4) Wrist Shot, assists: Jack McBain (11), Michael Carcone (9)UTA 2 – 1 FLA · UTA 42% → 61% +19UTA 42% → 61%+19 pts
- P29:55Cole Schwindt Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: noneUTA 2 – 2 FLA · FLA 37% → 57% +20FLA 37% → 57%+20 pts
- P311:05Mikhail Sergachev Goal (8) Tip-In, assists: Sean Durzi (13)UTA 3 – 2 FLA · UTA 46% → 80% +34UTA 46% → 80%+34 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Panthers 60%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- FLA 60%
- ML UTA +140 / FLA -166
- Pre-line forecast
- FLA 62%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- FLA 66%
- Ratings vs. market
- +5.6 pts
- FLA: Elo 65.6%, market 60.0%
- Fair odds
- FLA -150
- UTA +150 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- UTA 3.0 – 3.5 FLA
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | UTA | FLA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1514 | 1541 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Rest | −30 | — | UTA on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Starting goalies | −17 | +3 | UTA: Vitek Vanecek: team allows 0.43 more goals than with its usual starter (≈37 weighted starts) · FLA: Sergei Bobrovsky: team allows 0.08 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈49 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | FLA +112 Elo | FLA 65.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | FLA 61.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | FLA 62.1% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | FLA 60.0% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| UTA | Stat | FLA |
|---|---|---|
| 17th of 323.1 | Goals scored | 3.120th of 32 |
| 3rd of 322.8 | Goals allowed | 3.222nd of 32 |
| 5th of 32+0.4 | Margin | −0.218th of 32 |
| 6th of 3252.6% | Shot share | 52.7%5th of 32 |
| 18th of 3289.7% | Save percentage | 88.7%25th of 32 |
| 1st of 328–2 | Last 10 | 6–49th of 32 |
| 25th of 3212–16 | Road vs home | 14–1211th of 32 |
| 22nd of 321498 | Opponent Elo | 15037th of 32 |
| 11th of 321514 | Elo rating | 15415th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  UTA |  FLA |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 23–29 | 19–32 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 12–22 | 8–28 |
| Underdog | 11–7 | 11–4 |
| Overs–unders | 26–26 | 29–22 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
UTA 0–3 FLA in their last 3 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 3.