Florida Panthers at Minnesota Wild, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors MIN; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Panthers- Brad MarchandGoals2
- Carter VerhaegheAssists2
- Brad MarchandPoints3
Wild- Matt BoldyGoals1
- Matt BoldyAssists1
- Kirill KaprizovPoints2
Scoring summary
- OT3:00Brad Marchand Goal (25) Snap Shot, assists: Carter Verhaeghe (24)4–3
- P313:11Sam Bennett Goal (19) Wrist Shot, assists: Matthew Tkachuk (3), Brad Marchand (24)3–3
- P312:09Matt Boldy Goal (28) Wrist Shot, assists: none2–3
- P24:33Joel Eriksson Ek Goal (12) Wrist Shot, assists: Kirill Kaprizov (36), Quinn Hughes (44)2–2
- P118:20Brad Marchand Goal (24) Backhand, assists: Sam Reinhart (24), Matthew Tkachuk (2)2–1
- P19:17Kirill Kaprizov Goal (28) Wrist Shot, assists: Matt Boldy (25), Mats Zuccarello (22)1–1
- P16:44Sam Reinhart Goal (25) Wrist Shot, assists: Aaron Ekblad (18), Carter Verhaeghe (23)1–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P118:20Brad Marchand Goal (24) Backhand, assists: Sam Reinhart (24), Matthew Tkachuk (2)FLA 2 – 1 MIN · FLA 46% → 64% +17FLA 46% → 64%+17 pts
- P24:33Joel Eriksson Ek Goal (12) Wrist Shot, assists: Kirill Kaprizov (36), Quinn Hughes (44)FLA 2 – 2 MIN · MIN 35% → 53% +19MIN 35% → 53%+19 pts
- P312:09Matt Boldy Goal (28) Wrist Shot, assists: noneFLA 2 – 3 MIN · MIN 52% → 85% +34MIN 52% → 85%+34 pts
- P313:11Sam Bennett Goal (19) Wrist Shot, assists: Matthew Tkachuk (3), Brad Marchand (24)FLA 3 – 3 MIN · FLA 13% → 49% +35FLA 13% → 49%+35 pts
- OT3:00Brad Marchand Goal (25) Snap Shot, assists: Carter Verhaeghe (24)FLA 4 – 3 MIN · FLA 49% → 98% +48FLA 49% → 98%+48 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Wild 54%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 51.2% of 926 graded games.
- Market
- MIN 54%
- ML FLA +110 / MIN -130
- Pre-line forecast
- MIN 54%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIN 53%
- Ratings vs. market
- −1.3 pts
- MIN: Elo 53.0%, market 54.3%
- Fair odds
- MIN -119
- FLA +119 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- FLA 3.1 – 3.4 MIN
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | FLA | MIN | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1533 | 1523 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +2 | −2 | FLA: Sergei Bobrovsky: team allows 0.05 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈49 weighted starts) · MIN: Filip Gustavsson: team allows 0.04 more goals than with its usual starter (≈47 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | MIN +21 Elo | MIN 53.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIN 54.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIN 54.3% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | MIN 54.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| FLA | Stat | MIN |
|---|---|---|
| 21st of 323.0 | Goals scored | 3.214th of 32 |
| 23rd of 323.3 | Goals allowed | 2.97th of 32 |
| 24th of 32−0.3 | Margin | +0.36th of 32 |
| 6th of 3252.5% | Shot share | 49.4%19th of 32 |
| 25th of 3288.6% | Save percentage | 91.0%2nd of 32 |
| 12th of 325–5 | Last 10 | 4–621st of 32 |
| 6th of 3212–10 | Road vs home | 14–1212th of 32 |
| 7th of 321505 | Opponent Elo | 149625th of 32 |
| 5th of 321533 | Elo rating | 15239th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  FLA |  MIN |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 17–32 | 28–24 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 7–28 | 9–20 |
| Underdog | 10–4 | 19–4 |
| Overs–unders | 27–22 | 30–22 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 9–1 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
FLA 1–3 MIN in their last 4 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 4.