Florida Panthers at Chicago Blackhawks, NHL forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors CHI; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Panthers- Tobias BjornfotGoals2
- Gustav ForslingAssists2
- Tobias BjornfotPoints2
Blackhawks- Tyler BertuzziGoals1
- Ilya MikheyevAssists1
- Tyler BertuzziPoints1
Scoring summary
- P319:38Tobias Bjornfot Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Carter Verhaeghe (25), Anton Lundell (21)5–1
- P318:11Sam Reinhart Goal (26) Backhand, assists: Evan Rodrigues (14), Eetu Luostarinen (16)4–1
- P37:24Carter Verhaeghe Goal (15) Wrist Shot, assists: Evan Rodrigues (13), Gustav Forsling (17)3–1
- P35:20Mackie Samoskevich Goal (5) Wrist Shot, assists: Gustav Forsling (16)2–1
- P219:30Tyler Bertuzzi Goal (25) Wrist Shot, assists: Ilya Mikheyev (9), Wyatt Kaiser (7)1–1
- P215:33Tobias Bjornfot Goal (1) Wrap-around, assists: Cole Schwindt (1)1–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P215:33Tobias Bjornfot Goal (1) Wrap-around, assists: Cole Schwindt (1)FLA 1 – 0 CHI · FLA 53% → 74% +21FLA 53% → 74%+21 pts
- P219:30Tyler Bertuzzi Goal (25) Wrist Shot, assists: Ilya Mikheyev (9), Wyatt Kaiser (7)FLA 1 – 1 CHI · CHI 24% → 47% +23CHI 24% → 47%+23 pts
- P35:20Mackie Samoskevich Goal (5) Wrist Shot, assists: Gustav Forsling (16)FLA 2 – 1 CHI · FLA 53% → 79% +26FLA 53% → 79%+26 pts
- P37:24Carter Verhaeghe Goal (15) Wrist Shot, assists: Evan Rodrigues (13), Gustav Forsling (17)FLA 3 – 1 CHI · FLA 80% → 95% +15FLA 80% → 95%+15 pts
- P318:11Sam Reinhart Goal (26) Backhand, assists: Evan Rodrigues (14), Eetu Luostarinen (16)FLA 4 – 1 CHI · FLA >99% → >99% +0FLA >99% → >99%+0 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Panthers 55%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- FLA 55%
- ML FLA -135 / CHI +114
- Pre-line forecast
- FLA 53%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- FLA 52%
- Ratings vs. market
- −2.7 pts
- FLA: Elo 52.4%, market 55.1%
- Fair odds
- FLA -123
- CHI +123 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- FLA 2.9 – 2.6 CHI
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 5.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | FLA | CHI | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1536 | 1431 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Rest | −30 | — | FLA on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Starting goalies | −13 | +10 | FLA: Daniil Tarasov: team allows 0.31 more goals than with its usual starter (≈34 weighted starts) · CHI: Spencer Knight: team allows 0.26 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈38 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | FLA +17 Elo | FLA 52.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | FLA 52.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | FLA 52.8% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | FLA 55.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| FLA | Stat | CHI |
|---|---|---|
| 21st of 323.0 | Goals scored | 2.726th of 32 |
| 23rd of 323.3 | Goals allowed | 3.119th of 32 |
| 24th of 32−0.2 | Margin | −0.426th of 32 |
| 5th of 3252.7% | Shot share | 45.7%31st of 32 |
| 26th of 3288.6% | Save percentage | 90.1%12th of 32 |
| 8th of 326–4 | Last 10 | 5–513th of 32 |
| 6th of 3213–10 | Road vs home | 11–1729th of 32 |
| 7th of 321505 | Opponent Elo | 150114th of 32 |
| 5th of 321536 | Elo rating | 143132nd of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  FLA |  CHI |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 18–32 | 35–16 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 7–28 | 0–2 |
| Underdog | 11–4 | 35–14 |
| Overs–unders | 28–22 | 21–30 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 3–7 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
FLA 3–2 CHI in their last 5 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 5.