Washington Capitals at Detroit Red Wings, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors DET; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Capitals- Dylan StromeGoals1
- Jakob ChychrunAssists3
- Jakob ChychrunPoints3
Red Wings- Alex DeBrincatGoals2
- Alex DeBrincatAssists1
- Alex DeBrincatPoints3
Scoring summary
- SO0:00Nic Dowd Goal Backhand3–2
- SO0:00Ryan Leonard Goal Wrist Shot3–2
- SO0:00Patrick Kane Goal Snap Shot3–2
- SO0:00Dylan Strome Goal Backhand3–2
- SO0:00Lucas Raymond Goal Snap Shot3–2
- P319:07Alex DeBrincat Goal (30) Wrist Shot, assists: Moritz Seider (30)3–3
- P318:20Alex DeBrincat Goal (29) Wrist Shot, assists: Dylan Larkin (23), Andrew Copp (25)3–2
- P314:44Declan Chisholm Goal (1) Deflected, assists: Jakob Chychrun (23), Dylan Strome (29)3–1
- P39:36Dylan Strome Goal (15) Wrap-around, assists: Alex Ovechkin (24), Jakob Chychrun (22)2–1
- P29:52Ben Chiarot Goal (5) Slap Shot, assists: Alex DeBrincat (27), Patrick Kane (24)1–1
- P16:27Nic Dowd Goal (3) Snap Shot, assists: Connor McMichael (23), Jakob Chychrun (21)1–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P16:27Nic Dowd Goal (3) Snap Shot, assists: Connor McMichael (23), Jakob Chychrun (21)WSH 1 – 0 DET · WSH 46% → 61% +15WSH 46% → 61%+15 pts
- P29:52Ben Chiarot Goal (5) Slap Shot, assists: Alex DeBrincat (27), Patrick Kane (24)WSH 1 – 1 DET · DET 33% → 53% +20DET 33% → 53%+20 pts
- P39:36Dylan Strome Goal (15) Wrap-around, assists: Alex Ovechkin (24), Jakob Chychrun (22)WSH 2 – 1 DET · WSH 48% → 80% +32WSH 48% → 80%+32 pts
- P314:44Declan Chisholm Goal (1) Deflected, assists: Jakob Chychrun (23), Dylan Strome (29)WSH 3 – 1 DET · WSH 88% → >99% +11WSH 88% → >99%+11 pts
- P319:07Alex DeBrincat Goal (30) Wrist Shot, assists: Moritz Seider (30)WSH 3 – 3 DET · DET <1% → 51% +50DET <1% → 51%+50 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Red Wings 54%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 51.2% of 926 graded games.
- Market
- DET 54%
- ML WSH +110 / DET -130
- Pre-line forecast
- DET 54%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- DET 59%
- Ratings vs. market
- +4.8 pts
- DET: Elo 59.1%, market 54.3%
- Fair odds
- DET -119
- WSH +119 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- WSH 3.1 – 3.4 DET
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | WSH | DET | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1504 | 1514 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | −13 | +6 | WSH: Charlie Lindgren: team allows 0.32 more goals than with its usual starter (≈44 weighted starts) · DET: John Gibson: team allows 0.15 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈44 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | DET +64 Elo | DET 59.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | DET 52.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | DET 53.5% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | DET 54.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| WSH | Stat | DET |
|---|---|---|
| 15th of 323.2 | Goals scored | 3.119th of 32 |
| 14th of 323.0 | Goals allowed | 3.011th of 32 |
| 13th of 32+0.1 | Margin | +0.115th of 32 |
| 13th of 3250.4% | Shot share | 50.4%14th of 32 |
| 10th of 3290.3% | Save percentage | 90.0%11th of 32 |
| 25th of 323–7 | Last 10 | 7–33rd of 32 |
| 27th of 3211–16 | Road vs home | 18–105th of 32 |
| 13th of 321501 | Opponent Elo | 149724th of 32 |
| 17th of 321504 | Elo rating | 151411th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  WSH |  DET |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 28–26 | 28–26 |
| Last 10 | 3–7 | 7–3 |
| Favorite | 16–22 | 6–19 |
| Underdog | 12–4 | 22–7 |
| Overs–unders | 26–28 | 27–27 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
WSH 4–4 DET in their last 8 meetings; the forecast called 5 of 8.