Los Angeles Kings at Detroit Red Wings, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors DET; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Kings- Samuel HeleniusGoals1
- Adrian KempeAssists1
- Samuel HeleniusPoints1
Red Wings- Alex DeBrincatGoals1
- Patrick KaneAssists1
- Alex DeBrincatPoints1
Scoring summary
- P318:47Corey Perry Goal (11) Wrist Shot, assists: Alex Laferriere (12)3–1
- P317:45Alex DeBrincat Goal (28) Wrist Shot, assists: Moritz Seider (29), Patrick Kane (23)2–1
- P36:46Andrei Kuzmenko Goal (11) Snap Shot, assists: Adrian Kempe (23), Kevin Fiala (19)2–0
- P210:00Samuel Helenius Goal (2) Snap Shot, assists: Jeff Malott (4)1–0
Turning points
The 4 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P210:00Samuel Helenius Goal (2) Snap Shot, assists: Jeff Malott (4)LA 1 – 0 DET · LA 48% → 68% +20LA 48% → 68%+20 pts
- P36:46Andrei Kuzmenko Goal (11) Snap Shot, assists: Adrian Kempe (23), Kevin Fiala (19)LA 2 – 0 DET · LA 77% → 94% +17LA 77% → 94%+17 pts
- P317:45Alex DeBrincat Goal (28) Wrist Shot, assists: Moritz Seider (29), Patrick Kane (23)LA 2 – 1 DET · DET <1% → 3% +3DET <1% → 3%+3 pts
- P318:47Corey Perry Goal (11) Wrist Shot, assists: Alex Laferriere (12)LA 3 – 1 DET · LA >99% → >99% +1LA >99% → >99%+1 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Red Wings 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 51.2% of 926 graded games.
- Market
- DET 53%
- ML LA +105 / DET -125
- Pre-line forecast
- DET 54%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- DET 60%
- Ratings vs. market
- +6.6 pts
- DET: Elo 59.8%, market 53.2%
- Fair odds
- DET -114
- LA +114 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- LA 2.7 – 2.8 DET
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 5.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | LA | DET | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1496 | 1519 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | −5 | +7 | LA: Anton Forsberg: team allows 0.13 more goals than with its usual starter (≈38 weighted starts) · DET: John Gibson: team allows 0.17 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈44 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | DET +69 Elo | DET 59.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | DET 52.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | DET 54.3% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | DET 53.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| LA | Stat | DET |
|---|---|---|
| 28th of 322.7 | Goals scored | 3.216th of 32 |
| 6th of 322.9 | Goals allowed | 3.010th of 32 |
| 21st of 32−0.2 | Margin | +0.213th of 32 |
| 12th of 3250.7% | Shot share | 50.3%14th of 32 |
| 10th of 3290.4% | Save percentage | 90.0%12th of 32 |
| 19th of 324–6 | Last 10 | 8–21st of 32 |
| 10th of 3213–12 | Road vs home | 18–93rd of 32 |
| 18th of 321500 | Opponent Elo | 149626th of 32 |
| 19th of 321496 | Elo rating | 151910th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  LA |  DET |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 18–32 | 28–25 |
| Last 10 | 3–7 | 8–2 |
| Favorite | 5–27 | 6–18 |
| Underdog | 13–5 | 22–7 |
| Overs–unders | 23–27 | 27–26 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
LA 1–4 DET in their last 5 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 5.