Los Angeles Kings at St. Louis Blues, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors STL; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Kings- Alex LaferriereGoals1
- Alex LaferriereAssists1
- Alex LaferrierePoints2
Blues- Jordan KyrouGoals2
- Pavel BuchnevichAssists1
- Jordan KyrouPoints2
Scoring summary
- SO0:00Trevor Moore Goal Snap Shot2–1
- SO0:00Dalibor Dvorsky Goal Backhand2–1
- SO0:00Adrian Kempe Goal Wrist Shot2–1
- P317:50Jordan Kyrou Goal (11) Snap Shot, assists: Justin Faulk (13)4–4
- P311:34Trevor Moore Goal (6) Wrist Shot, assists: Brandt Clarke (19), Joel Armia (9)4–3
- P210:18Alex Laferriere Goal (13) Wrist Shot, assists: Corey Perry (15), Mikey Anderson (7)3–3
- P28:10Jordan Kyrou Goal (10) Wrap-around, assists: Logan Mailloux (2), Cam Fowler (17)2–3
- P26:30Brayden Schenn Goal (10) Snap Shot, assists: Pavel Buchnevich (19), Jimmy Snuggerud (9)2–2
- P22:14Dalibor Dvorsky Goal (9) Snap Shot, assists: Otto Stenberg (7), Mathieu Joseph (9)2–1
- P21:11Brian Dumoulin Goal (1) Slap Shot, assists: Alex Laferriere (11), Adrian Kempe (22)2–0
- P14:31Taylor Ward Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Jeff Malott (3), Samuel Helenius (2)1–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P26:30Brayden Schenn Goal (10) Snap Shot, assists: Pavel Buchnevich (19), Jimmy Snuggerud (9)LA 2 – 2 STL · STL 27% → 45% +18STL 27% → 45%+18 pts
- P28:10Jordan Kyrou Goal (10) Wrap-around, assists: Logan Mailloux (2), Cam Fowler (17)LA 2 – 3 STL · STL 45% → 64% +20STL 45% → 64%+20 pts
- P210:18Alex Laferriere Goal (13) Wrist Shot, assists: Corey Perry (15), Mikey Anderson (7)LA 3 – 3 STL · LA 35% → 55% +20LA 35% → 55%+20 pts
- P311:34Trevor Moore Goal (6) Wrist Shot, assists: Brandt Clarke (19), Joel Armia (9)LA 4 – 3 STL · LA 53% → 85% +32LA 53% → 85%+32 pts
- P317:50Jordan Kyrou Goal (11) Snap Shot, assists: Justin Faulk (13)LA 4 – 4 STL · STL 3% → 49% +46STL 3% → 49%+46 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Kings 57%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- LA 57%
- ML LA -148 / STL +124
- Pre-line forecast
- LA 55%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- LA 53%
- Ratings vs. market
- −4.4 pts
- LA: Elo 52.8%, market 57.2%
- Fair odds
- LA -134
- STL +134 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- LA 3.0 – 2.5 STL
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 5.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | LA | STL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1494 | 1466 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Rest | — | −30 | STL on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Starting goalies | +2 | +5 | LA: Darcy Kuemper: team allows 0.04 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈45 weighted starts) · STL: Joel Hofer: team allows 0.13 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈39 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | LA +20 Elo | LA 52.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | LA 55.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | LA 55.1% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | LA 57.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| LA | Stat | STL |
|---|---|---|
| 30th of 322.6 | Goals scored | 2.432nd of 32 |
| 5th of 322.8 | Goals allowed | 3.428th of 32 |
| 21st of 32−0.2 | Margin | −1.031st of 32 |
| 13th of 3250.7% | Shot share | 46.9%28th of 32 |
| 10th of 3290.5% | Save percentage | 88.6%28th of 32 |
| 21st of 324–6 | Last 10 | 4–621st of 32 |
| 13th of 3212–12 | Road vs home | 12–1424th of 32 |
| 15th of 321500 | Opponent Elo | 150014th of 32 |
| 18th of 321494 | Elo rating | 146628th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  LA |  STL |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 18–31 | 23–28 |
| Last 10 | 3–7 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 5–26 | 1–18 |
| Underdog | 13–5 | 22–10 |
| Overs–unders | 22–27 | 24–27 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
LA 3–4 STL in their last 7 meetings; the forecast called 5 of 7.