St. Louis Blues at Dallas Stars, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors DAL; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Blues- Pavel BuchnevichGoals1
- Pavel BuchnevichAssists1
- Pavel BuchnevichPoints2
Stars- Jason RobertsonGoals1
- Roope HintzAssists2
- Jason RobertsonPoints2
Scoring summary
- P319:00Jason Robertson Goal (30) Snap Shot, assists: Roope Hintz (26)2–3
- P27:44Matt Duchene Goal (5) Snap Shot, assists: Wyatt Johnston (29), Jason Robertson (30)2–2
- P24:04Pavel Buchnevich Goal (9) Slap Shot, assists: Jake Neighbours (9), Cam Fowler (16)2–1
- P111:30Dalibor Dvorsky Goal (8) Slap Shot, assists: Pavel Buchnevich (18), Jordan Kyrou (13)1–1
- P15:41Wyatt Johnston Goal (27) Snap Shot, assists: Miro Heiskanen (33), Roope Hintz (25)0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P15:41Wyatt Johnston Goal (27) Snap Shot, assists: Miro Heiskanen (33), Roope Hintz (25)STL 0 – 1 DAL · DAL 59% → 73% +14DAL 59% → 73%+14 pts
- P111:30Dalibor Dvorsky Goal (8) Slap Shot, assists: Pavel Buchnevich (18), Jordan Kyrou (13)STL 1 – 1 DAL · STL 27% → 42% +15STL 27% → 42%+15 pts
- P24:04Pavel Buchnevich Goal (9) Slap Shot, assists: Jake Neighbours (9), Cam Fowler (16)STL 2 – 1 DAL · STL 43% → 61% +19STL 43% → 61%+19 pts
- P27:44Matt Duchene Goal (5) Snap Shot, assists: Wyatt Johnston (29), Jason Robertson (30)STL 2 – 2 DAL · DAL 37% → 57% +20DAL 37% → 57%+20 pts
- P319:00Jason Robertson Goal (30) Snap Shot, assists: Roope Hintz (26)STL 2 – 3 DAL · DAL 51% → >99% +49DAL 51% → >99%+49 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Stars 59%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- DAL 59%
- ML STL +136 / DAL -162
- Pre-line forecast
- DAL 59%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- DAL 62%
- Ratings vs. market
- +2.2 pts
- DAL: Elo 61.6%, market 59.3%
- Fair odds
- DAL -146
- STL +146 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- STL 2.5 – 3.0 DAL
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 5.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | STL | DAL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1468 | 1539 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Rest | — | −30 | DAL on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Starting goalies | −6 | −1 | STL: Jordan Binnington: team allows 0.16 more goals than with its usual starter (≈47 weighted starts) · DAL: Jake Oettinger: team allows 0.02 more goals than with its usual starter (≈49 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | DAL +82 Elo | DAL 61.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | DAL 58.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | DAL 59.3% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | DAL 59.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| STL | Stat | DAL |
|---|---|---|
| 32nd of 322.4 | Goals scored | 3.311th of 32 |
| 29th of 323.4 | Goals allowed | 2.84th of 32 |
| 31st of 32−1.0 | Margin | +0.53rd of 32 |
| 28th of 3246.8% | Shot share | 48.1%24th of 32 |
| 26th of 3288.6% | Save percentage | 90.6%6th of 32 |
| 22nd of 324–6 | Last 10 | 3–726th of 32 |
| 32nd of 327–17 | Road vs home | 13–1010th of 32 |
| 18th of 321500 | Opponent Elo | 149627th of 32 |
| 27th of 321468 | Elo rating | 15394th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  STL |  DAL |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 22–28 | 21–30 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 1–18 | 11–28 |
| Underdog | 21–10 | 10–2 |
| Overs–unders | 24–26 | 24–27 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
STL 3–5 DAL in their last 8 meetings; the forecast called 7 of 8.