Los Angeles Kings at Carolina Hurricanes, NHL forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors CAR; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Kings- Samuel HeleniusGoals1
- Brian DumoulinAssists1
- Quinton ByfieldPoints1
Hurricanes- Sebastian AhoGoals1
- Shayne GostisbehereAssists2
- Shayne GostisbeherePoints2
Scoring summary
- OT1:25Sebastian Aho Goal (19) Snap Shot, assists: Seth Jarvis (18), Shayne Gostisbehere (29)2–3
- P316:49Quinton Byfield Goal (11) Snap Shot, assists: Adrian Kempe (25)2–2
- P313:21Samuel Helenius Goal (3) Snap Shot, assists: Jeff Malott (5), Brian Dumoulin (11)1–2
- P312:57Alexander Nikishin Goal (7) Snap Shot, assists: none0–2
- P16:25Jordan Staal Goal (13) Tip-In, assists: Andrei Svechnikov (27), Shayne Gostisbehere (28)0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P16:25Jordan Staal Goal (13) Tip-In, assists: Andrei Svechnikov (27), Shayne Gostisbehere (28)LA 0 – 1 CAR · CAR 61% → 75% +14CAR 61% → 75%+14 pts
- P312:57Alexander Nikishin Goal (7) Snap Shot, assists: noneLA 0 – 2 CAR · CAR 88% → 99% +11CAR 88% → 99%+11 pts
- P313:21Samuel Helenius Goal (3) Snap Shot, assists: Jeff Malott (5), Brian Dumoulin (11)LA 1 – 2 CAR · LA 1% → 12% +11LA 1% → 12%+11 pts
- P316:49Quinton Byfield Goal (11) Snap Shot, assists: Adrian Kempe (25)LA 2 – 2 CAR · LA 5% → 47% +42LA 5% → 47%+42 pts
- OT1:25Sebastian Aho Goal (19) Snap Shot, assists: Seth Jarvis (18), Shayne Gostisbehere (29)LA 2 – 3 CAR · CAR 53% → 94% +41CAR 53% → 94%+41 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Hurricanes 62%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 62.4% of 599 graded games.
- Market
- CAR 62%
- ML LA +150 / CAR -180
- Pre-line forecast
- CAR 65%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CAR 64%
- Ratings vs. market
- +2.1 pts
- CAR: Elo 63.7%, market 61.6%
- Fair odds
- CAR -161
- LA +161 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- LA 2.4 – 3.1 CAR
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 5.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | LA | CAR | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1500 | 1550 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Rest | −30 | −30 | CAR and LA on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Starting goalies | −3 | +10 | LA: Anton Forsberg: team allows 0.07 more goals than with its usual starter (≈38 weighted starts) · CAR: Brandon Bussi: team allows 0.24 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈19 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | CAR +98 Elo | CAR 63.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CAR 64.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CAR 64.7% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | CAR 61.6% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| LA | Stat | CAR |
|---|---|---|
| 28th of 322.7 | Goals scored | 3.53rd of 32 |
| 6th of 322.8 | Goals allowed | 2.98th of 32 |
| 19th of 32−0.2 | Margin | +0.64th of 32 |
| 13th of 3250.7% | Shot share | 56.4%1st of 32 |
| 7th of 3290.5% | Save percentage | 89.0%23rd of 32 |
| 14th of 325–5 | Last 10 | 6–47th of 32 |
| 10th of 3215–13 | Road vs home | 19–103rd of 32 |
| 19th of 321500 | Opponent Elo | 149920th of 32 |
| 20th of 321500 | Elo rating | 15503rd of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  LA |  CAR |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 19–34 | 20–34 |
| Last 10 | 3–7 | 3–7 |
| Favorite | 5–28 | 18–32 |
| Underdog | 14–6 | 2–2 |
| Overs–unders | 23–30 | 29–25 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–7 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
LA 3–2 CAR in their last 5 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 5.