Los Angeles Kings at Philadelphia Flyers, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors PHI; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Kings- Adrian KempeGoals2
- Adrian KempeAssists1
- Adrian KempePoints3
Flyers- Travis KonecnyGoals1
- Travis KonecnyAssists1
- Travis KonecnyPoints2
Scoring summary
- OT2:48Quinton Byfield Goal (10) Snap Shot, assists: Adrian Kempe (24), Drew Doughty (11)3–2
- P30:25Travis Konecny Goal (22) Tip-In, assists: Rasmus Ristolainen (4), Nikita Grebenkin (8)2–2
- P20:39Trevor Zegras Goal (20) Wrist Shot, assists: Bobby Brink (10), Travis Konecny (30)2–1
- P17:08Adrian Kempe Goal (20) Snap Shot, assists: Corey Perry (17)2–0
- P13:10Adrian Kempe Goal (19) Snap Shot, assists: Alex Laferriere (13), Corey Perry (16)1–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P13:10Adrian Kempe Goal (19) Snap Shot, assists: Alex Laferriere (13), Corey Perry (16)LA 1 – 0 PHI · LA 50% → 65% +15LA 50% → 65%+15 pts
- P17:08Adrian Kempe Goal (20) Snap Shot, assists: Corey Perry (17)LA 2 – 0 PHI · LA 66% → 78% +13LA 66% → 78%+13 pts
- P20:39Trevor Zegras Goal (20) Wrist Shot, assists: Bobby Brink (10), Travis Konecny (30)LA 2 – 1 PHI · PHI 18% → 32% +14PHI 18% → 32%+14 pts
- P30:25Travis Konecny Goal (22) Tip-In, assists: Rasmus Ristolainen (4), Nikita Grebenkin (8)LA 2 – 2 PHI · PHI 26% → 50% +24PHI 26% → 50%+24 pts
- OT2:48Quinton Byfield Goal (10) Snap Shot, assists: Adrian Kempe (24), Drew Doughty (11)LA 3 – 2 PHI · LA 50% → 97% +47LA 50% → 97%+47 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Kings 50%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 51.2% of 926 graded games.
- Market
- LA 50%
- ML LA -112 / PHI -108
- Pre-line forecast
- LA 46%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- LA 49%
- Ratings vs. market
- −1.6 pts
- LA: Elo 48.9%, market 50.4%
- Fair odds
- LA -102
- PHI +102 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- LA 2.8 – 2.7 PHI
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 5.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | LA | PHI | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1498 | 1461 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | 0 | +10 | LA: Darcy Kuemper: team allows 0.00 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈45 weighted starts) · PHI: Dan Vladar: team allows 0.24 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈39 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | PHI +8 Elo | PHI 51.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | PHI 54.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | PHI 53.7% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | LA 50.4% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| LA | Stat | PHI |
|---|---|---|
| 29th of 322.7 | Goals scored | 3.021st of 32 |
| 6th of 322.8 | Goals allowed | 3.322nd of 32 |
| 20th of 32−0.2 | Margin | −0.224th of 32 |
| 12th of 3250.7% | Shot share | 50.3%15th of 32 |
| 7th of 3290.5% | Save percentage | 88.2%30th of 32 |
| 22nd of 324–6 | Last 10 | 2–828th of 32 |
| 11th of 3214–13 | Road vs home | 12–1424th of 32 |
| 17th of 321500 | Opponent Elo | 15063rd of 32 |
| 19th of 321498 | Elo rating | 146129th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  LA |  PHI |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 19–33 | 31–22 |
| Last 10 | 3–7 | 3–7 |
| Favorite | 5–27 | 7–10 |
| Underdog | 14–6 | 24–12 |
| Overs–unders | 23–29 | 32–21 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 8–2 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
LA 3–1 PHI in their last 4 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 4.