Los Angeles Kings at Buffalo Sabres, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors BUF; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Kings- Adrian KempeGoals1
- Kevin FialaAssists1
- Adrian KempePoints1
Sabres- Alex TuchGoals3
- Jack QuinnAssists3
- Alex TuchPoints3
Scoring summary
- P319:00Alex Tuch Goal (22) Snap Shot, assists: Jack Quinn (22), Ryan McLeod (26)1–4
- P27:47Adrian Kempe Goal (18) Tip-In, assists: Kevin Fiala (20), Brandt Clarke (20)1–3
- P26:29Alex Tuch Goal (21) Tip-In, assists: Bowen Byram (16), Zach Benson (19)0–3
- P111:17Mattias Samuelsson Goal (9) Slap Shot, assists: Rasmus Dahlin (32), Jack Quinn (21)0–2
- P17:14Alex Tuch Goal (20) Snap Shot, assists: Ryan McLeod (25), Jack Quinn (20)0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P17:14Alex Tuch Goal (20) Snap Shot, assists: Ryan McLeod (25), Jack Quinn (20)LA 0 – 1 BUF · BUF 53% → 68% +15BUF 53% → 68%+15 pts
- P111:17Mattias Samuelsson Goal (9) Slap Shot, assists: Rasmus Dahlin (32), Jack Quinn (21)LA 0 – 2 BUF · BUF 68% → 81% +13BUF 68% → 81%+13 pts
- P26:29Alex Tuch Goal (21) Tip-In, assists: Bowen Byram (16), Zach Benson (19)LA 0 – 3 BUF · BUF 85% → 94% +9BUF 85% → 94%+9 pts
- P27:47Adrian Kempe Goal (18) Tip-In, assists: Kevin Fiala (20), Brandt Clarke (20)LA 1 – 3 BUF · LA 6% → 15% +9LA 6% → 15%+9 pts
- P319:00Alex Tuch Goal (22) Snap Shot, assists: Jack Quinn (22), Ryan McLeod (26)LA 1 – 4 BUF · BUF >99% → 100% +0BUF >99% → 100%+0 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Sabres 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 51.2% of 926 graded games.
- Market
- BUF 53%
- ML LA +105 / BUF -125
- Pre-line forecast
- BUF 56%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- BUF 60%
- Ratings vs. market
- +6.4 pts
- BUF: Elo 59.6%, market 53.2%
- Fair odds
- BUF -114
- LA +114 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- LA 2.7 – 2.8 BUF
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 5.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | LA | BUF | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1501 | 1529 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +1 | +6 | LA: Darcy Kuemper: team allows 0.03 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈45 weighted starts) · BUF: Alex Lyon: team allows 0.15 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈42 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | BUF +68 Elo | BUF 59.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | BUF 55.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | BUF 56.0% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | BUF 53.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| LA | Stat | BUF |
|---|---|---|
| 27th of 322.7 | Goals scored | 3.45th of 32 |
| 6th of 322.8 | Goals allowed | 3.114th of 32 |
| 18th of 32−0.1 | Margin | +0.46th of 32 |
| 12th of 3250.6% | Shot share | 48.2%23rd of 32 |
| 7th of 3290.5% | Save percentage | 90.5%8th of 32 |
| 22nd of 324–6 | Last 10 | 7–34th of 32 |
| 8th of 3214–12 | Road vs home | 16–95th of 32 |
| 17th of 321500 | Opponent Elo | 150018th of 32 |
| 17th of 321501 | Elo rating | 15297th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  LA |  BUF |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 19–32 | 30–22 |
| Last 10 | 3–7 | 8–2 |
| Favorite | 5–27 | 11–12 |
| Underdog | 14–5 | 19–10 |
| Overs–unders | 23–28 | 27–25 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 7–3 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
LA 1–3 BUF in their last 4 meetings; the forecast called 1 of 4.