Buffalo Sabres at Toronto Maple Leafs, NHL forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors TOR; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Sabres- Rasmus DahlinGoals3
- Mattias SamuelssonAssists3
- Rasmus DahlinPoints5
Scoring summary
- P319:16Rasmus Dahlin Goal (11) Wrist Shot, assists: none7–4
- P314:59
Max Domi Goal (8) Wrist Shot, assists: Auston Matthews (19), Bobby McMann (12)6–4 - P311:33Jack Quinn Goal (12) Wrist Shot, assists: Rasmus Dahlin (31)6–3
- P30:16Alex Tuch Goal (19) Wrist Shot, assists: Tage Thompson (27), Mattias Samuelsson (23)5–3
- P218:17Rasmus Dahlin Goal (10) Tip-In, assists: Mattias Samuelsson (22), Peyton Krebs (16)4–3
- P211:17Bobby McMann Goal (17) Wrist Shot, assists: Auston Matthews (18), Max Domi (20)3–3
- P118:05Tage Thompson Goal (28) Wrist Shot, assists: none3–2
- P113:16Josh Doan Goal (16) Wrist Shot, assists: Rasmus Dahlin (30)2–2
- P110:49Auston Matthews Goal (26) Backhand, assists: Max Domi (19), Oliver Ekman-Larsson (24)1–2
- P19:29Rasmus Dahlin Goal (9) Wrist Shot, assists: Ryan McLeod (24), Mattias Samuelsson (21)1–1
- P17:44Matthew Knies Goal (13) Wrist Shot, assists: John Tavares (26), Matias Maccelli (14)0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P113:16Josh Doan Goal (16) Wrist Shot, assists: Rasmus Dahlin (30)BUF 2 – 2 TOR · BUF 33% → 48% +16BUF 33% → 48%+16 pts
- P118:05Tage Thompson Goal (28) Wrist Shot, assists: noneBUF 3 – 2 TOR · BUF 49% → 66% +17BUF 49% → 66%+17 pts
- P211:17Bobby McMann Goal (17) Wrist Shot, assists: Auston Matthews (18), Max Domi (20)BUF 3 – 3 TOR · TOR 31% → 51% +20TOR 31% → 51%+20 pts
- P218:17Rasmus Dahlin Goal (10) Tip-In, assists: Mattias Samuelsson (22), Peyton Krebs (16)BUF 4 – 3 TOR · BUF 49% → 72% +23BUF 49% → 72%+23 pts
- P30:16Alex Tuch Goal (19) Wrist Shot, assists: Tage Thompson (27), Mattias Samuelsson (23)BUF 5 – 3 TOR · BUF 73% → 89% +16BUF 73% → 89%+16 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Maple Leafs 52%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 51.2% of 926 graded games.
- Market
- TOR 52%
- ML BUF -102 / TOR -118
- Pre-line forecast
- TOR 51%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- TOR 53%
- Ratings vs. market
- +1.1 pts
- TOR: Elo 52.8%, market 51.7%
- Fair odds
- TOR -107
- BUF +107 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- BUF 3.2 – 3.3 TOR
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | BUF | TOR | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1524 | 1510 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +1 | 0 | BUF: Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen: team allows 0.02 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈46 weighted starts) · TOR: Joseph Woll: team allows 0.01 more goals than with its usual starter (≈42 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | TOR +20 Elo | TOR 52.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | TOR 50.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | TOR 50.6% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | TOR 51.7% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| BUF | Stat | TOR |
|---|---|---|
| 6th of 323.4 | Goals scored | 3.313th of 32 |
| 14th of 323.0 | Goals allowed | 3.427th of 32 |
| 6th of 32+0.3 | Margin | −0.117th of 32 |
| 23rd of 3248.1% | Shot share | 46.1%30th of 32 |
| 7th of 3290.6% | Save percentage | 90.0%13th of 32 |
| 5th of 327–3 | Last 10 | 4–619th of 32 |
| 14th of 3213–13 | Road vs home | 16–1415th of 32 |
| 15th of 321500 | Opponent Elo | 15038th of 32 |
| 7th of 321524 | Elo rating | 151012th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  BUF |  TOR |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 29–22 | 22–30 |
| Last 10 | 8–2 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 11–12 | 6–21 |
| Underdog | 18–10 | 16–9 |
| Overs–unders | 26–25 | 30–22 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 7–3 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
BUF 3–6 TOR in their last 9 meetings; the forecast called 7 of 9.