Colorado Avalanche at Toronto Maple Leafs, NHL forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors TOR; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Avalanche- Brock NelsonGoals3
- Nathan MacKinnonAssists1
- Brock NelsonPoints3
Maple Leafs- Max DomiGoals1
- Easton CowanAssists1
- Max DomiPoints1
Scoring summary
- P318:58Max Domi Goal (7) Wrist Shot, assists: Bobby McMann (11), Easton Cowan (10)4–1
- P317:41Brock Nelson Goal (27) Wrist Shot, assists: Nathan MacKinnon (50)4–0
- P218:53Jack Drury Goal (8) Wrist Shot, assists: Parker Kelly (9), Joel Kiviranta (4)3–0
- P17:31Brock Nelson Goal (26) Wrist Shot, assists: Artturi Lehkonen (21), Valeri Nichushkin (17)2–0
- P16:19Brock Nelson Goal (25) Wrist Shot, assists: Cale Makar (41)1–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P16:19Brock Nelson Goal (25) Wrist Shot, assists: Cale Makar (41)COL 1 – 0 TOR · COL 60% → 74% +14COL 60% → 74%+14 pts
- P17:31Brock Nelson Goal (26) Wrist Shot, assists: Artturi Lehkonen (21), Valeri Nichushkin (17)COL 2 – 0 TOR · COL 74% → 85% +11COL 74% → 85%+11 pts
- P218:53Jack Drury Goal (8) Wrist Shot, assists: Parker Kelly (9), Joel Kiviranta (4)COL 3 – 0 TOR · COL 92% → 98% +6COL 92% → 98%+6 pts
- P317:41Brock Nelson Goal (27) Wrist Shot, assists: Nathan MacKinnon (50)COL 4 – 0 TOR · COL >99% → >99% +0COL >99% → >99%+0 pts
- P318:58Max Domi Goal (7) Wrist Shot, assists: Bobby McMann (11), Easton Cowan (10)COL 4 – 1 TOR · TOR 0% → 0% +0TOR 0% → 0%+0 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Avalanche 61%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 62.4% of 599 graded games.
- Market
- COL 61%
- ML COL -175 / TOR +145
- Pre-line forecast
- COL 61%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- COL 54%
- Ratings vs. market
- −6.8 pts
- COL: Elo 54.1%, market 60.9%
- Fair odds
- COL -156
- TOR +156 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- COL 3.6 – 2.9 TOR
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | COL | TOR | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1588 | 1514 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | −10 | 0 | COL: Mackenzie Blackwood: team allows 0.24 more goals than with its usual starter (≈45 weighted starts) · TOR: Joseph Woll: team allows 0.01 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈42 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | COL +28 Elo | COL 54.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | COL 63.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | COL 61.3% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | COL 60.9% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| COL | Stat | TOR |
|---|---|---|
| 1st of 324.0 | Goals scored | 3.310th of 32 |
| 1st of 322.5 | Goals allowed | 3.426th of 32 |
| 1st of 32+1.5 | Margin | −0.116th of 32 |
| 2nd of 3256.7% | Shot share | 46.0%30th of 32 |
| 1st of 3291.5% | Save percentage | 90.0%15th of 32 |
| 21st of 324–6 | Last 10 | 5–513th of 32 |
| 2nd of 3214–9 | Road vs home | 16–1311th of 32 |
| 23rd of 321497 | Opponent Elo | 150111th of 32 |
| 1st of 321588 | Elo rating | 151412th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  COL |  TOR |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 26–23 | 22–29 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 25–23 | 6–21 |
| Underdog | 1–0 | 16–8 |
| Overs–unders | 23–26 | 30–21 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
COL 2–3 TOR in their last 5 meetings; the forecast called 1 of 5.