Vegas Golden Knights at Toronto Maple Leafs, NHL forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors TOR; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Golden Knights- Mark StoneGoals2
- Ivan BarbashevAssists2
- Mark StonePoints3
Maple Leafs- John TavaresGoals1
- Matthew KniesAssists2
- Matthew KniesPoints2
Scoring summary
- P319:01Mark Stone Goal (20) Wrist Shot, assists: Jack Eichel (42), Rasmus Andersson (21)6–3
- P315:11Mark Stone Goal (19) Wrist Shot, assists: Ivan Barbashev (23)5–3
- P218:19Bobby McMann Goal (16) Tip-In, assists: Max Domi (18), Morgan Rielly (24)4–3
- P210:04Scott Laughton Goal (8) Backhand, assists: Matthew Knies (31)4–2
- P25:16Braeden Bowman Goal (7) Wrist Shot, assists: Tanner Laczynski (2), Alexander Holtz (4)4–1
- P23:32Pavel Dorofeyev Goal (22) Wrist Shot, assists: none3–1
- P20:13John Tavares Goal (19) Backhand, assists: Matthew Knies (30), Matias Maccelli (13)2–1
- P14:31Keegan Kolesar Goal (4) Snap Shot, assists: Jonas Rondbjerg (1), Reilly Smith (7)2–0
- P11:06Jack Eichel Goal (19) Wrist Shot, assists: Mark Stone (32), Ivan Barbashev (22)1–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P11:06Jack Eichel Goal (19) Wrist Shot, assists: Mark Stone (32), Ivan Barbashev (22)VGK 1 – 0 TOR · VGK 53% → 67% +14VGK 53% → 67%+14 pts
- P14:31Keegan Kolesar Goal (4) Snap Shot, assists: Jonas Rondbjerg (1), Reilly Smith (7)VGK 2 – 0 TOR · VGK 67% → 79% +12VGK 67% → 79%+12 pts
- P20:13John Tavares Goal (19) Backhand, assists: Matthew Knies (30), Matias Maccelli (13)VGK 2 – 1 TOR · TOR 17% → 31% +14TOR 17% → 31%+14 pts
- P23:32Pavel Dorofeyev Goal (22) Wrist Shot, assists: noneVGK 3 – 1 TOR · VGK 70% → 84% +14VGK 70% → 84%+14 pts
- P218:19Bobby McMann Goal (16) Tip-In, assists: Max Domi (18), Morgan Rielly (24)VGK 4 – 3 TOR · TOR 11% → 26% +15TOR 11% → 26%+15 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Golden Knights 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 51.2% of 926 graded games.
- Market
- VGK 53%
- ML VGK -122 / TOR +102
- Pre-line forecast
- VGK 46%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- VGK 41%
- Ratings vs. market
- −11.6 pts
- VGK: Elo 41.0%, market 52.6%
- Fair odds
- VGK -111
- TOR +111 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- VGK 3.3 – 3.2 TOR
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | VGK | TOR | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1521 | 1520 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Rest | −30 | — | VGK on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Starting goalies | +14 | +14 | VGK: Adin Hill: team allows 0.34 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈44 weighted starts) · TOR: Anthony Stolarz: team allows 0.34 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈39 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | TOR +63 Elo | TOR 59.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | TOR 52.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | TOR 53.6% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | VGK 52.6% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| VGK | Stat | TOR |
|---|---|---|
| 5th of 323.3 | Goals scored | 3.39th of 32 |
| 16th of 323.1 | Goals allowed | 3.325th of 32 |
| 8th of 32+0.3 | Margin | 0.016th of 32 |
| 3rd of 3254.0% | Shot share | 46.1%30th of 32 |
| 29th of 3288.4% | Save percentage | 90.1%12th of 32 |
| 4th of 327–3 | Last 10 | 5–513th of 32 |
| 12th of 3212–12 | Road vs home | 16–1210th of 32 |
| 31st of 321494 | Opponent Elo | 150015th of 32 |
| 8th of 321521 | Elo rating | 15209th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  VGK |  TOR |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 16–33 | 22–28 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 10–32 | 6–21 |
| Underdog | 6–1 | 16–7 |
| Overs–unders | 28–21 | 29–21 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 7–3 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
VGK 3–2 TOR in their last 5 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 5.