Carolina Hurricanes at New York Rangers, NHL forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors NYR; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Hurricanes- Jordan StaalGoals1
- Mark JankowskiAssists1
- Jordan StaalPoints1
RangersScoring summary
- P319:06Jordan Staal Goal (15) Wrist Shot, assists: Nikolaj Ehlers (29), Jackson Blake (17)2–0
- P16:26Andrei Svechnikov Goal (21) Snap Shot, assists: Mark Jankowski (8)1–0
Turning points
The 2 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P16:26Andrei Svechnikov Goal (21) Snap Shot, assists: Mark Jankowski (8)CAR 1 – 0 NYR · CAR 66% → 78% +13CAR 66% → 78%+13 pts
- P319:06Jordan Staal Goal (15) Wrist Shot, assists: Nikolaj Ehlers (29), Jackson Blake (17)CAR 2 – 0 NYR · CAR >99% → >99% +0CAR >99% → >99%+0 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Hurricanes 66%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 65–70% have won 67.6% of 306 graded games.
- Market
- CAR 66%
- ML CAR -225 / NYR +185
- Pre-line forecast
- CAR 62%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CAR 59%
- Ratings vs. market
- −7.5 pts
- CAR: Elo 58.8%, market 66.4%
- Fair odds
- CAR -197
- NYR +197 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CAR 3.7 – 2.8 NYR
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CAR | NYR | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1554 | 1469 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +8 | −5 | CAR: Brandon Bussi: team allows 0.19 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈20 weighted starts) · NYR: Jonathan Quick: team allows 0.12 more goals than with its usual starter (≈36 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | CAR +62 Elo | CAR 58.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CAR 63.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CAR 62.1% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | CAR 66.4% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| CAR | Stat | NYR |
|---|---|---|
| 4th of 323.5 | Goals scored | 2.727th of 32 |
| 7th of 322.9 | Goals allowed | 3.218th of 32 |
| 4th of 32+0.6 | Margin | −0.526th of 32 |
| 1st of 3256.4% | Shot share | 47.3%28th of 32 |
| 23rd of 3289.0% | Save percentage | 89.9%13th of 32 |
| 5th of 327–3 | Last 10 | 2–830th of 32 |
| 6th of 3214–11 | Road vs home | 6–1831st of 32 |
| 21st of 321500 | Opponent Elo | 15039th of 32 |
| 3rd of 321554 | Elo rating | 146925th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  CAR |  NYR |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 20–36 | 28–28 |
| Last 10 | 3–7 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 18–34 | 5–18 |
| Underdog | 2–2 | 23–10 |
| Overs–unders | 30–26 | 26–30 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 8–2 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
CAR 9–7 NYR in their last 16 meetings; the forecast called 10 of 16.