New York Rangers at Pittsburgh Penguins, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors PIT; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Rangers- Alexis LafreniereGoals2
- Vincent TrocheckAssists2
- Alexis LafrenierePoints3
Penguins- Anthony ManthaGoals2
- Connor DewarAssists2
- Anthony ManthaPoints2
Scoring summary
- P319:49Will Cuylle Goal (13) Wrist Shot, assists: Vincent Trocheck (24), Alexis Lafrenière (20)5–6
- P318:53Alexis Lafrenière Goal (12) Wrist Shot, assists: Vincent Trocheck (23), Matthew Robertson (7)4–6
- P317:28Ben Kindel Goal (12) Wrist Shot, assists: Connor Dewar (10), Stuart Skinner (1)3–6
- P315:15Vladislav Gavrikov Goal (9) Slap Shot, assists: Braden Schneider (9), Jonny Brodzinski (6)3–5
- P39:12Vincent Trocheck Goal (12) Wrist Shot, assists: Vladislav Gavrikov (12)2–5
- P31:40Noel Acciari Goal (6) Wrist Shot, assists: Blake Lizotte (11), Brett Kulak (7)1–5
- P31:20Rickard Rakell Goal (10) Wrist Shot, assists: Sidney Crosby (31), Erik Karlsson (30)1–4
- P218:28Alexis Lafrenière Goal (11) Wrist Shot, assists: J.T. Miller (22), Mika Zibanejad (29)1–3
- P212:59Anthony Mantha Goal (19) Wrist Shot, assists: Rickard Rakell (14), Evgeni Malkin (29)0–3
- P16:05Noel Acciari Goal (5) Snap Shot, assists: Blake Lizotte (10), Connor Dewar (9)0–2
- P12:37Anthony Mantha Goal (18) Tip-In, assists: Rutger McGroarty (2)0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P12:37Anthony Mantha Goal (18) Tip-In, assists: Rutger McGroarty (2)NYR 0 – 1 PIT · PIT 64% → 77% +13PIT 64% → 77%+13 pts
- P16:05Noel Acciari Goal (5) Snap Shot, assists: Blake Lizotte (10), Connor Dewar (9)NYR 0 – 2 PIT · PIT 77% → 87% +10PIT 77% → 87%+10 pts
- P212:59Anthony Mantha Goal (19) Wrist Shot, assists: Rickard Rakell (14), Evgeni Malkin (29)NYR 0 – 3 PIT · PIT 91% → 97% +6PIT 91% → 97%+6 pts
- P218:28Alexis Lafrenière Goal (11) Wrist Shot, assists: J.T. Miller (22), Mika Zibanejad (29)NYR 1 – 3 PIT · NYR 2% → 7% +5NYR 2% → 7%+5 pts
- P31:20Rickard Rakell Goal (10) Wrist Shot, assists: Sidney Crosby (31), Erik Karlsson (30)NYR 1 – 4 PIT · PIT 94% → 98% +5PIT 94% → 98%+5 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Penguins 64%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 62.4% of 599 graded games.
- Market
- PIT 64%
- ML NYR +170 / PIT -205
- Pre-line forecast
- PIT 64%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- PIT 61%
- Ratings vs. market
- −3.3 pts
- PIT: Elo 61.2%, market 64.5%
- Fair odds
- PIT -181
- NYR +181 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- NYR 2.8 – 3.7 PIT
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | NYR | PIT | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1471 | 1504 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | −3 | +9 | NYR: Jonathan Quick: team allows 0.06 more goals than with its usual starter (≈36 weighted starts) · PIT: Stuart Skinner: team allows 0.22 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈49 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | PIT +79 Elo | PIT 61.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | PIT 65.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | PIT 64.2% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | PIT 64.5% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| NYR | Stat | PIT |
|---|---|---|
| 29th of 322.7 | Goals scored | 3.49th of 32 |
| 18th of 323.1 | Goals allowed | 3.09th of 32 |
| 27th of 32−0.5 | Margin | +0.46th of 32 |
| 26th of 3247.5% | Shot share | 51.4%10th of 32 |
| 11th of 3290.0% | Save percentage | 90.0%13th of 32 |
| 28th of 322–8 | Last 10 | 6–48th of 32 |
| 14th of 3215–15 | Road vs home | 11–1428th of 32 |
| 8th of 321503 | Opponent Elo | 149232nd of 32 |
| 24th of 321471 | Elo rating | 150417th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  NYR |  PIT |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 27–28 | 32–20 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 5–18 | 9–14 |
| Underdog | 22–10 | 23–6 |
| Overs–unders | 25–30 | 27–25 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 8–2 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
NYR 6–3 PIT in their last 9 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 9.