New York Rangers at New York Islanders, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors NYI; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Rangers- Taylor RaddyshGoals1
- Vladislav GavrikovAssists1
- Mika ZibanejadPoints1
Islanders- Simon HolmstromGoals1
- Simon HolmstromAssists2
- Simon HolmstromPoints3
Scoring summary
- P219:12Emil Heineman Goal (15) Snap Shot, assists: Adam Pelech (6), Ondrej Palat (7)2–5
- P215:42Taylor Raddysh Goal (8) Wrist Shot, assists: Noah Laba (10), Will Borgen (3)2–4
- P213:59Jean-Gabriel Pageau Goal (11) Backhand, assists: Marc Gatcomb (2), Kyle MacLean (3)1–4
- P213:12Mathew Barzal Goal (13) Snap Shot, assists: Simon Holmstrom (14), Bo Horvat (13)1–3
- P118:04Mika Zibanejad Goal (22) Snap Shot, assists: J.T. Miller (20), Vladislav Gavrikov (10)1–2
- P116:10Simon Holmstrom Goal (13) Tip-In, assists: Tony DeAngelo (19), Jean-Gabriel Pageau (12)0–2
- P114:59Ondrej Palat Goal (5) Snap Shot, assists: Simon Holmstrom (13), Matthew Schaefer (22)0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P114:59Ondrej Palat Goal (5) Snap Shot, assists: Simon Holmstrom (13), Matthew Schaefer (22)NYR 0 – 1 NYI · NYI 56% → 72% +16NYI 56% → 72%+16 pts
- P116:10Simon Holmstrom Goal (13) Tip-In, assists: Tony DeAngelo (19), Jean-Gabriel Pageau (12)NYR 0 – 2 NYI · NYI 72% → 84% +12NYI 72% → 84%+12 pts
- P118:04Mika Zibanejad Goal (22) Snap Shot, assists: J.T. Miller (20), Vladislav Gavrikov (10)NYR 1 – 2 NYI · NYR 15% → 28% +13NYR 15% → 28%+13 pts
- P213:12Mathew Barzal Goal (13) Snap Shot, assists: Simon Holmstrom (14), Bo Horvat (13)NYR 1 – 3 NYI · NYI 75% → 89% +14NYI 75% → 89%+14 pts
- P213:59Jean-Gabriel Pageau Goal (11) Backhand, assists: Marc Gatcomb (2), Kyle MacLean (3)NYR 1 – 4 NYI · NYI 89% → 96% +7NYI 89% → 96%+7 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Islanders 57%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- NYI 57%
- ML NYR +124 / NYI -148
- Pre-line forecast
- NYI 55%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NYI 58%
- Ratings vs. market
- +1.0 pts
- NYI: Elo 58.2%, market 57.2%
- Fair odds
- NYI -134
- NYR +134 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- NYR 3.0 – 3.5 NYI
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | NYR | NYI | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1477 | 1486 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | −14 | −1 | NYR: Spencer Martin: team allows 0.35 more goals than with its usual starter (≈20 weighted starts) · NYI: David Rittich: team allows 0.02 more goals than with its usual starter (≈39 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | NYI +57 Elo | NYI 58.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NYI 54.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NYI 55.1% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | NYI 57.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| NYR | Stat | NYI |
|---|---|---|
| 27th of 322.7 | Goals scored | 2.923rd of 32 |
| 18th of 323.1 | Goals allowed | 2.85th of 32 |
| 26th of 32−0.4 | Margin | +0.114th of 32 |
| 25th of 3247.7% | Shot share | 49.7%17th of 32 |
| 11th of 3290.1% | Save percentage | 90.9%3rd of 32 |
| 29th of 322–8 | Last 10 | 5–514th of 32 |
| 14th of 3215–14 | Road vs home | 14–1110th of 32 |
| 10th of 321503 | Opponent Elo | 15046th of 32 |
| 24th of 321477 | Elo rating | 148621st of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  NYR |  NYI |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 26–27 | 28–24 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 5–18 | 2–15 |
| Underdog | 21–9 | 26–9 |
| Overs–unders | 24–29 | 24–28 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 8–2 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
NYR 7–3 NYI in their last 10 meetings; the forecast called 6 of 10.