Pittsburgh Penguins at Vancouver Canucks, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors VAN; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Penguins- Ben KindelGoals2
- Justin BrazeauAssists1
- Ben KindelPoints2
Canucks- Teddy BluegerGoals1
- Filip HronekAssists1
- Teddy BluegerPoints1
Scoring summary
- P314:00Teddy Blueger Goal (3) Deflected, assists: Liam Ohgren (3), Filip Hronek (26)3–2
- P36:29Jake DeBrusk Goal (13) Backhand, assists: Elias Pettersson (18), Evander Kane (15)3–1
- P217:22Ben Kindel Goal (10) Slap Shot, assists: Justin Brazeau (11), Brett Kulak (6)3–0
- P28:41Ben Kindel Goal (9) Tip-In, assists: Ryan Shea (17), Anthony Mantha (19)2–0
- P25:24Evgeni Malkin Goal (13) Wrist Shot, assists: Thomas Novak (19), Egor Chinakhov (5)1–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P25:24Evgeni Malkin Goal (13) Wrist Shot, assists: Thomas Novak (19), Egor Chinakhov (5)PIT 1 – 0 VAN · PIT 55% → 73% +18PIT 55% → 73%+18 pts
- P28:41Ben Kindel Goal (9) Tip-In, assists: Ryan Shea (17), Anthony Mantha (19)PIT 2 – 0 VAN · PIT 74% → 87% +14PIT 74% → 87%+14 pts
- P217:22Ben Kindel Goal (10) Slap Shot, assists: Justin Brazeau (11), Brett Kulak (6)PIT 3 – 0 VAN · PIT 90% → 97% +7PIT 90% → 97%+7 pts
- P36:29Jake DeBrusk Goal (13) Backhand, assists: Elias Pettersson (18), Evander Kane (15)PIT 3 – 1 VAN · VAN <1% → 5% +4VAN <1% → 5%+4 pts
- P314:00Teddy Blueger Goal (3) Deflected, assists: Liam Ohgren (3), Filip Hronek (26)PIT 3 – 2 VAN · VAN <1% → 11% +10VAN <1% → 11%+10 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Penguins 57%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- PIT 57%
- ML PIT -148 / VAN +124
- Pre-line forecast
- PIT 58%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- PIT 56%
- Ratings vs. market
- −0.9 pts
- PIT: Elo 56.3%, market 57.2%
- Fair odds
- PIT -134
- VAN +134 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- PIT 3.5 – 3.0 VAN
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | PIT | VAN | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1499 | 1436 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +8 | −7 | PIT: Stuart Skinner: team allows 0.21 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈49 weighted starts) · VAN: Kevin Lankinen: team allows 0.18 more goals than with its usual starter (≈42 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | PIT +44 Elo | PIT 56.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | PIT 57.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | PIT 57.6% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | PIT 57.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| PIT | Stat | VAN |
|---|---|---|
| 10th of 323.3 | Goals scored | 2.727th of 32 |
| 10th of 323.0 | Goals allowed | 3.732nd of 32 |
| 8th of 32+0.3 | Margin | −1.031st of 32 |
| 11th of 3251.2% | Shot share | 47.4%27th of 32 |
| 16th of 3289.9% | Save percentage | 88.6%25th of 32 |
| 8th of 326–4 | Last 10 | 1–932nd of 32 |
| 3rd of 3214–10 | Road vs home | 5–1832nd of 32 |
| 28th of 321495 | Opponent Elo | 149921st of 32 |
| 18th of 321499 | Elo rating | 143631st of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  PIT |  VAN |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 31–19 | 25–26 |
| Last 10 | 7–3 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 8–13 | 1–9 |
| Underdog | 23–6 | 24–17 |
| Overs–unders | 26–24 | 29–22 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
PIT 3–2 VAN in their last 5 meetings; the forecast called 1 of 5.