Chicago Blackhawks at Pittsburgh Penguins, NHL forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors PIT; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Blackhawks- Connor BedardGoals1
- Frank NazarAssists2
- Frank NazarPoints2
Penguins- Connor DewarGoals2
- Anthony ManthaAssists2
- Anthony ManthaPoints3
Scoring summary
- P314:31Connor Bedard Goal (21) Wrist Shot, assists: Frank Nazar (17)2–6
- P313:59Connor Dewar Goal (13) Wrist Shot, assists: Noel Acciari (9), Blake Lizotte (9)1–6
- P219:30Ryan Shea Goal (3) Slap Shot, assists: Ilya Solovyov (3), Anthony Mantha (21)1–5
- P216:01Anthony Mantha Goal (17) Backhand, assists: Ben Kindel (13), Ryan Shea (18)1–4
- P215:30Egor Chinakhov Goal (9) Wrist Shot, assists: Evgeni Malkin (28)1–3
- P25:54Ben Kindel Goal (11) Wrist Shot, assists: Anthony Mantha (20), Parker Wotherspoon (14)1–2
- P111:24Connor Dewar Goal (12) Wrist Shot, assists: Noel Acciari (8), Blake Lizotte (8)1–1
- P19:32Connor Murphy Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: Ryan Greene (13), Frank Nazar (16)1–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P19:32Connor Murphy Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: Ryan Greene (13), Frank Nazar (16)CHI 1 – 0 PIT · CHI 39% → 54% +16CHI 39% → 54%+16 pts
- P111:24Connor Dewar Goal (12) Wrist Shot, assists: Noel Acciari (8), Blake Lizotte (8)CHI 1 – 1 PIT · PIT 45% → 61% +16PIT 45% → 61%+16 pts
- P25:54Ben Kindel Goal (11) Wrist Shot, assists: Anthony Mantha (20), Parker Wotherspoon (14)CHI 1 – 2 PIT · PIT 59% → 76% +17PIT 59% → 76%+17 pts
- P215:30Egor Chinakhov Goal (9) Wrist Shot, assists: Evgeni Malkin (28)CHI 1 – 3 PIT · PIT 78% → 91% +13PIT 78% → 91%+13 pts
- P216:01Anthony Mantha Goal (17) Backhand, assists: Ben Kindel (13), Ryan Shea (18)CHI 1 – 4 PIT · PIT 91% → 97% +6PIT 91% → 97%+6 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Penguins 62%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 62.4% of 599 graded games.
- Market
- PIT 62%
- ML CHI +154 / PIT -185
- Pre-line forecast
- PIT 67%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- PIT 67%
- Ratings vs. market
- +5.0 pts
- PIT: Elo 67.2%, market 62.2%
- Fair odds
- PIT -165
- CHI +165 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CHI 2.9 – 3.6 PIT
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CHI | PIT | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1425 | 1501 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | −18 | −4 | CHI: Arvid Soderblom: team allows 0.44 more goals than with its usual starter (≈39 weighted starts) · PIT: Arturs Silovs: team allows 0.09 more goals than with its usual starter (≈29 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | PIT +125 Elo | PIT 67.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | PIT 66.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | PIT 66.8% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | PIT 62.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| CHI | Stat | PIT |
|---|---|---|
| 26th of 322.7 | Goals scored | 3.312th of 32 |
| 20th of 323.2 | Goals allowed | 3.09th of 32 |
| 27th of 32−0.5 | Margin | +0.37th of 32 |
| 31st of 3246.0% | Shot share | 51.0%11th of 32 |
| 15th of 3290.0% | Save percentage | 90.0%13th of 32 |
| 25th of 323–7 | Last 10 | 6–410th of 32 |
| 27th of 3210–14 | Road vs home | 10–1428th of 32 |
| 12th of 321502 | Opponent Elo | 149430th of 32 |
| 32nd of 321425 | Elo rating | 150119th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  CHI |  PIT |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 36–17 | 31–20 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 0–2 | 8–14 |
| Underdog | 36–15 | 23–6 |
| Overs–unders | 23–30 | 26–25 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
CHI 2–3 PIT in their last 5 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 5.