Chicago Blackhawks at Minnesota Wild, NHL forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors MIN; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Blackhawks- Ryan DonatoGoals1
- Alex VlasicAssists1
- Teuvo TeravainenPoints1
Wild- Joel Eriksson EkGoals1
- Joel Eriksson EkAssists1
- Joel Eriksson EkPoints2
Scoring summary
- SO0:00Kirill Kaprizov Goal Wrist Shot0–1
- P317:58Jared Spurgeon Goal (5) Backhand, assists: Joel Eriksson Ek (22), Matt Boldy (26)3–3
- P33:57Joel Eriksson Ek Goal (13) Wrist Shot, assists: Marcus Johansson (22), Quinn Hughes (45)3–2
- P212:33Yakov Trenin Goal (4) Snap Shot, assists: Daemon Hunt (4)3–1
- P25:54Ilya Mikheyev Goal (10) Wrist Shot, assists: Alex Vlasic (11), Jason Dickinson (5)3–0
- P115:14Ryan Donato Goal (11) Slap Shot, assists: none2–0
- P11:19Teuvo Teravainen Goal (10) Backhand, assists: Connor Bedard (29), Louis Crevier (11)1–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P11:19Teuvo Teravainen Goal (10) Backhand, assists: Connor Bedard (29), Louis Crevier (11)CHI 1 – 0 MIN · CHI 36% → 51% +14CHI 36% → 51%+14 pts
- P115:14Ryan Donato Goal (11) Slap Shot, assists: noneCHI 2 – 0 MIN · CHI 55% → 71% +16CHI 55% → 71%+16 pts
- P25:54Ilya Mikheyev Goal (10) Wrist Shot, assists: Alex Vlasic (11), Jason Dickinson (5)CHI 3 – 0 MIN · CHI 76% → 88% +12CHI 76% → 88%+12 pts
- P33:57Joel Eriksson Ek Goal (13) Wrist Shot, assists: Marcus Johansson (22), Quinn Hughes (45)CHI 3 – 2 MIN · MIN 11% → 30% +19MIN 11% → 30%+19 pts
- P317:58Jared Spurgeon Goal (5) Backhand, assists: Joel Eriksson Ek (22), Matt Boldy (26)CHI 3 – 3 MIN · MIN 3% → 53% +50MIN 3% → 53%+50 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Wild 64%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 62.4% of 599 graded games.
- Market
- MIN 64%
- ML CHI +164 / MIN -198
- Pre-line forecast
- MIN 69%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIN 66%
- Ratings vs. market
- +2.1 pts
- MIN: Elo 65.8%, market 63.7%
- Fair odds
- MIN -175
- CHI +175 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CHI 2.9 – 3.6 MIN
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CHI | MIN | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1426 | 1520 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +8 | −8 | CHI: Spencer Knight: team allows 0.19 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈38 weighted starts) · MIN: Jesper Wallstedt: team allows 0.19 more goals than with its usual starter (≈20 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | MIN +114 Elo | MIN 65.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIN 69.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIN 68.6% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | MIN 63.7% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| CHI | Stat | MIN |
|---|---|---|
| 26th of 322.7 | Goals scored | 3.214th of 32 |
| 19th of 323.2 | Goals allowed | 2.98th of 32 |
| 28th of 32−0.4 | Margin | +0.38th of 32 |
| 31st of 3245.7% | Shot share | 49.2%21st of 32 |
| 14th of 3290.0% | Save percentage | 91.0%2nd of 32 |
| 19th of 324–6 | Last 10 | 4–619th of 32 |
| 24th of 3210–13 | Road vs home | 14–1315th of 32 |
| 12th of 321501 | Opponent Elo | 149723rd of 32 |
| 32nd of 321426 | Elo rating | 15208th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  CHI |  MIN |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 35–17 | 28–25 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 3–7 |
| Favorite | 0–2 | 9–21 |
| Underdog | 35–15 | 19–4 |
| Overs–unders | 22–30 | 31–22 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 9–1 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
CHI 1–7 MIN in their last 8 meetings; the forecast called 5 of 8.