New York Islanders at New York Rangers, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors NYR; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Islanders- Carson SoucyGoals1
- Scott MayfieldAssists1
- Carson SoucyPoints1
Rangers- Mika ZibanejadGoals1
- J.T. MillerAssists1
- Mika ZibanejadPoints1
Scoring summary
- P32:48Mika Zibanejad Goal (23) Slap Shot, assists: Vladislav Gavrikov (11), J.T. Miller (21)2–1
- P218:53Matthew Schaefer Goal (14) Wrist Shot, assists: Bo Horvat (14)2–0
- P217:18Carson Soucy Goal (4) Snap Shot, assists: Max Shabanov (12), Scott Mayfield (7)1–0
Turning points
The 3 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P217:18Carson Soucy Goal (4) Snap Shot, assists: Max Shabanov (12), Scott Mayfield (7)NYI 1 – 0 NYR · NYI 54% → 76% +22NYI 54% → 76%+22 pts
- P218:53Matthew Schaefer Goal (14) Wrist Shot, assists: Bo Horvat (14)NYI 2 – 0 NYR · NYI 76% → 91% +15NYI 76% → 91%+15 pts
- P32:48Mika Zibanejad Goal (23) Slap Shot, assists: Vladislav Gavrikov (11), J.T. Miller (21)NYI 2 – 1 NYR · NYR 7% → 22% +15NYR 7% → 22%+15 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Islanders 56%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- NYI 56%
- ML NYI -142 / NYR +120
- Pre-line forecast
- NYI 54%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NYI 48%
- Ratings vs. market
- −8.1 pts
- NYI: Elo 48.3%, market 56.3%
- Fair odds
- NYI -129
- NYR +129 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- NYI 2.9 – 2.6 NYR
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 5.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | NYI | NYR | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1490 | 1473 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Rest | −30 | −30 | NYR and NYI on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Starting goalies | +2 | −4 | NYI: Ilya Sorokin: team allows 0.04 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈47 weighted starts) · NYR: Jonathan Quick: team allows 0.11 more goals than with its usual starter (≈35 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | NYR +12 Elo | NYR 51.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NYI 54.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NYI 53.6% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | NYI 56.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| NYI | Stat | NYR |
|---|---|---|
| 23rd of 322.9 | Goals scored | 2.728th of 32 |
| 5th of 322.8 | Goals allowed | 3.118th of 32 |
| 12th of 32+0.1 | Margin | −0.529th of 32 |
| 16th of 3250.0% | Shot share | 47.4%27th of 32 |
| 3rd of 3290.9% | Save percentage | 90.0%12th of 32 |
| 14th of 325–5 | Last 10 | 2–829th of 32 |
| 12th of 3214–13 | Road vs home | 6–1731st of 32 |
| 8th of 321503 | Opponent Elo | 150210th of 32 |
| 21st of 321490 | Elo rating | 147324th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  NYI |  NYR |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 29–24 | 26–28 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 3–7 |
| Favorite | 3–15 | 5–18 |
| Underdog | 26–9 | 21–10 |
| Overs–unders | 25–28 | 25–29 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 9–1 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
NYI 4–7 NYR in their last 11 meetings; the forecast called 7 of 11.