Ottawa Senators at Carolina Hurricanes, NHL forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors CAR; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Senators- Jake SandersonGoals1
- Dylan CozensAssists2
- Jake SandersonPoints2
Hurricanes- Seth JarvisGoals2
- Sebastian AhoAssists2
- Sebastian AhoPoints3
Scoring summary
- P314:53Jordan Staal Goal (14) Snap Shot, assists: Nikolaj Ehlers (28)3–4
- P34:57Jake Sanderson Goal (11) Slap Shot, assists: Drake Batherson (30), Dylan Cozens (25)3–3
- P216:21Tim Stützle Goal (27) Slap Shot, assists: Jake Sanderson (35), Dylan Cozens (24)2–3
- P215:41Seth Jarvis Goal (25) Wrist Shot, assists: Sebastian Aho (37)1–3
- P212:39Seth Jarvis Goal (24) Slap Shot, assists: Andrei Svechnikov (28), Sebastian Aho (36)1–2
- P117:49Sebastian Aho Goal (20) Wrist Shot, assists: K'Andre Miller (19)1–1
- P12:46Stephen Halliday Goal (4) Tip-In, assists: Jordan Spence (15), Lars Eller (7)1–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P12:46Stephen Halliday Goal (4) Tip-In, assists: Jordan Spence (15), Lars Eller (7)OTT 1 – 0 CAR · OTT 39% → 53% +15OTT 39% → 53%+15 pts
- P117:49Sebastian Aho Goal (20) Wrist Shot, assists: K'Andre Miller (19)OTT 1 – 1 CAR · CAR 43% → 60% +17CAR 43% → 60%+17 pts
- P212:39Seth Jarvis Goal (24) Slap Shot, assists: Andrei Svechnikov (28), Sebastian Aho (36)OTT 1 – 2 CAR · CAR 58% → 77% +19CAR 58% → 77%+19 pts
- P34:57Jake Sanderson Goal (11) Slap Shot, assists: Drake Batherson (30), Dylan Cozens (25)OTT 3 – 3 CAR · OTT 19% → 44% +25OTT 19% → 44%+25 pts
- P314:53Jordan Staal Goal (14) Snap Shot, assists: Nikolaj Ehlers (28)OTT 3 – 4 CAR · CAR 53% → 91% +37CAR 53% → 91%+37 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Hurricanes 62%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 62.4% of 599 graded games.
- Market
- CAR 62%
- ML OTT +150 / CAR -180
- Pre-line forecast
- CAR 68%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CAR 67%
- Ratings vs. market
- +5.1 pts
- CAR: Elo 66.8%, market 61.6%
- Fair odds
- CAR -161
- OTT +161 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- OTT 2.9 – 3.6 CAR
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | OTT | CAR | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1512 | 1552 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Rest | −30 | — | OTT on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Starting goalies | −7 | +9 | OTT: James Reimer: team allows 0.17 more goals than with its usual starter (≈30 weighted starts) · CAR: Brandon Bussi: team allows 0.24 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈20 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | CAR +121 Elo | CAR 66.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CAR 67.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CAR 67.7% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | CAR 61.6% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| OTT | Stat | CAR |
|---|---|---|
| 9th of 323.4 | Goals scored | 3.53rd of 32 |
| 21st of 323.3 | Goals allowed | 2.98th of 32 |
| 13th of 32+0.1 | Margin | +0.64th of 32 |
| 4th of 3253.6% | Shot share | 56.6%1st of 32 |
| 32nd of 3287.3% | Save percentage | 89.0%23rd of 32 |
| 9th of 326–4 | Last 10 | 6–49th of 32 |
| 15th of 3213–14 | Road vs home | 20–103rd of 32 |
| 20th of 321500 | Opponent Elo | 150021st of 32 |
| 11th of 321512 | Elo rating | 15523rd of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  OTT |  CAR |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 23–32 | 20–35 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 3–7 |
| Favorite | 11–27 | 18–33 |
| Underdog | 12–5 | 2–2 |
| Overs–unders | 32–23 | 29–26 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
OTT 2–5 CAR in their last 7 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 7.