Colorado Avalanche at Ottawa Senators, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors OTT; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Avalanche- Valeri NichushkinGoals1
- Keaton MiddletonAssists1
- Valeri NichushkinPoints1
Senators- Tim StutzleGoals1
- Artem ZubAssists2
- Tim StutzlePoints2
Scoring summary
- P318:53Tim Stützle Goal (24) Wrist Shot, assists: Thomas Chabot (17), Artem Zub (15)2–5
- P317:44Brady Tkachuk Goal (13) Wrist Shot, assists: Jake Sanderson (32)2–4
- P33:30Valeri Nichushkin Goal (12) Backhand, assists: Jack Drury (9)2–3
- P32:06Claude Giroux Goal (10) Wrist Shot, assists: Drake Batherson (26), Nick Jensen (11)1–3
- P214:22Ridly Greig Goal (9) Wrist Shot, assists: Tyler Kleven (9), Jordan Spence (13)1–2
- P214:05Parker Kelly Goal (11) Snap Shot, assists: Brock Nelson (19), Keaton Middleton (1)1–1
- P23:21Nick Cousins Goal (7) Backhand, assists: Artem Zub (14), Tim Stützle (31)0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P23:21Nick Cousins Goal (7) Backhand, assists: Artem Zub (14), Tim Stützle (31)COL 0 – 1 OTT · OTT 43% → 62% +18OTT 43% → 62%+18 pts
- P214:05Parker Kelly Goal (11) Snap Shot, assists: Brock Nelson (19), Keaton Middleton (1)COL 1 – 1 OTT · COL 34% → 55% +22COL 34% → 55%+22 pts
- P214:22Ridly Greig Goal (9) Wrist Shot, assists: Tyler Kleven (9), Jordan Spence (13)COL 1 – 2 OTT · OTT 45% → 66% +22OTT 45% → 66%+22 pts
- P32:06Claude Giroux Goal (10) Wrist Shot, assists: Drake Batherson (26), Nick Jensen (11)COL 1 – 3 OTT · OTT 71% → 89% +18OTT 71% → 89%+18 pts
- P33:30Valeri Nichushkin Goal (12) Backhand, assists: Jack Drury (9)COL 2 – 3 OTT · COL 10% → 28% +18COL 10% → 28%+18 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Avalanche 58%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- COL 58%
- ML COL -155 / OTT +130
- Pre-line forecast
- COL 59%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- COL 58%
- Ratings vs. market
- −0.1 pts
- COL: Elo 58.2%, market 58.3%
- Fair odds
- COL -140
- OTT +140 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- COL 3.5 – 3.0 OTT
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | COL | OTT | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1592 | 1500 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | −7 | −8 | COL: Mackenzie Blackwood: team allows 0.18 more goals than with its usual starter (≈45 weighted starts) · OTT: James Reimer: team allows 0.19 more goals than with its usual starter (≈30 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | COL +57 Elo | COL 58.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | COL 58.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | COL 58.7% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | COL 58.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| COL | Stat | OTT |
|---|---|---|
| 1st of 324.0 | Goals scored | 3.37th of 32 |
| 1st of 322.4 | Goals allowed | 3.326th of 32 |
| 1st of 32+1.5 | Margin | 0.016th of 32 |
| 2nd of 3256.6% | Shot share | 53.3%4th of 32 |
| 1st of 3291.6% | Save percentage | 87.1%32nd of 32 |
| 21st of 324–6 | Last 10 | 4–621st of 32 |
| 2nd of 3215–9 | Road vs home | 12–1424th of 32 |
| 23rd of 321497 | Opponent Elo | 149920th of 32 |
| 1st of 321592 | Elo rating | 150019th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  COL |  OTT |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 27–23 | 21–31 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 26–23 | 10–26 |
| Underdog | 1–0 | 11–5 |
| Overs–unders | 23–27 | 31–21 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
COL 5–0 OTT in their last 5 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 5.