Vegas Golden Knights at Ottawa Senators, NHL forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors OTT; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Golden Knights- Rasmus AnderssonGoals1
- Tomas HertlAssists1
- Rasmus AnderssonPoints1
Senators- Stephen HallidayGoals2
- Brady TkachukAssists3
- Stephen HallidayPoints3
Scoring summary
- P315:05Rasmus Andersson Goal (11) Wrist Shot, assists: Tomas Hertl (24)1–7
- P33:56Nick Jensen Goal (4) Wrist Shot, assists: Thomas Chabot (16), Shane Pinto (12)0–7
- P32:05Stephen Halliday Goal (3) Tip-In, assists: Tyler Kleven (8)0–6
- P31:22Dylan Cozens Goal (17) Wrist Shot, assists: Brady Tkachuk (20)0–5
- P217:50Stephen Halliday Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Thomas Chabot (15), Tim Stützle (30)0–4
- P26:07Jordan Spence Goal (4) Wrist Shot, assists: Tyler Kleven (7), Brady Tkachuk (19)0–3
- P25:51Dylan Cozens Goal (16) Backhand, assists: Ridly Greig (16), Brady Tkachuk (18)0–2
- P19:25Fabian Zetterlund Goal (12) Wrist Shot, assists: Stephen Halliday (7)0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P19:25Fabian Zetterlund Goal (12) Wrist Shot, assists: Stephen Halliday (7)VGK 0 – 1 OTT · OTT 43% → 59% +16OTT 43% → 59%+16 pts
- P25:51Dylan Cozens Goal (16) Backhand, assists: Ridly Greig (16), Brady Tkachuk (18)VGK 0 – 2 OTT · OTT 64% → 80% +16OTT 64% → 80%+16 pts
- P26:07Jordan Spence Goal (4) Wrist Shot, assists: Tyler Kleven (7), Brady Tkachuk (19)VGK 0 – 3 OTT · OTT 80% → 91% +11OTT 80% → 91%+11 pts
- P217:50Stephen Halliday Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Thomas Chabot (15), Tim Stützle (30)VGK 0 – 4 OTT · OTT 95% → 99% +3OTT 95% → 99%+3 pts
- P31:22Dylan Cozens Goal (17) Wrist Shot, assists: Brady Tkachuk (20)VGK 0 – 5 OTT · OTT >99% → >99% +1OTT >99% → >99%+1 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Golden Knights 57%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- VGK 57%
- ML VGK -148 / OTT +124
- Pre-line forecast
- VGK 56%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- VGK 58%
- Ratings vs. market
- +0.4 pts
- VGK: Elo 57.6%, market 57.2%
- Fair odds
- VGK -134
- OTT +134 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- VGK 3.5 – 3.0 OTT
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | VGK | OTT | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1527 | 1493 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Rest | — | −30 | OTT on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Starting goalies | +12 | −12 | VGK: Adin Hill: team allows 0.30 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈44 weighted starts) · OTT: Mads Sogaard: team allows 0.30 more goals than with its usual starter (≈6 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | VGK +53 Elo | VGK 57.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | VGK 55.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | VGK 56.2% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | VGK 57.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| VGK | Stat | OTT |
|---|---|---|
| 5th of 323.4 | Goals scored | 3.312th of 32 |
| 16th of 323.1 | Goals allowed | 3.427th of 32 |
| 8th of 32+0.3 | Margin | −0.118th of 32 |
| 3rd of 3254.1% | Shot share | 53.1%4th of 32 |
| 30th of 3288.3% | Save percentage | 87.0%32nd of 32 |
| 1st of 328–2 | Last 10 | 3–725th of 32 |
| 10th of 3213–12 | Road vs home | 11–1427th of 32 |
| 30th of 321494 | Opponent Elo | 149921st of 32 |
| 7th of 321527 | Elo rating | 149319th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  VGK |  OTT |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 17–33 | 20–31 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 3–7 |
| Favorite | 11–32 | 10–26 |
| Underdog | 6–1 | 10–5 |
| Overs–unders | 29–21 | 30–21 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 8–2 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
VGK 3–2 OTT in their last 5 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 5.