New Jersey Devils at Ottawa Senators, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors OTT; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Devils- Timo MeierGoals1
- Connor BrownAssists1
- Timo MeierPoints1
Senators- Brady TkachukGoals1
- Brady TkachukAssists2
- Brady TkachukPoints3
Scoring summary
- P318:41Shane Pinto Goal (15) Wrist Shot, assists: Michael Amadio (13), Jake Sanderson (34)1–4
- P317:53Tim Stützle Goal (25) Wrist Shot, assists: Brady Tkachuk (22), Claude Giroux (28)1–3
- P30:37Dylan Cozens Goal (18) Deflected, assists: Brady Tkachuk (21), Jake Sanderson (33)1–2
- P118:16Timo Meier Goal (14) Wrist Shot, assists: Cody Glass (6), Connor Brown (12)1–1
- P113:38Brady Tkachuk Goal (14) Wrist Shot, assists: Drake Batherson (27), Tim Stützle (32)0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P113:38Brady Tkachuk Goal (14) Wrist Shot, assists: Drake Batherson (27), Tim Stützle (32)NJ 0 – 1 OTT · OTT 58% → 73% +15OTT 58% → 73%+15 pts
- P118:16Timo Meier Goal (14) Wrist Shot, assists: Cody Glass (6), Connor Brown (12)NJ 1 – 1 OTT · NJ 26% → 42% +16NJ 26% → 42%+16 pts
- P30:37Dylan Cozens Goal (18) Deflected, assists: Brady Tkachuk (21), Jake Sanderson (33)NJ 1 – 2 OTT · OTT 55% → 78% +23OTT 55% → 78%+23 pts
- P317:53Tim Stützle Goal (25) Wrist Shot, assists: Brady Tkachuk (22), Claude Giroux (28)NJ 1 – 3 OTT · OTT 98% → >99% +2OTT 98% → >99%+2 pts
- P318:41Shane Pinto Goal (15) Wrist Shot, assists: Michael Amadio (13), Jake Sanderson (34)NJ 1 – 4 OTT · OTT >99% → >99% +0OTT >99% → >99%+0 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Senators 59%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- OTT 59%
- ML NJ +136 / OTT -162
- Pre-line forecast
- OTT 59%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- OTT 59%
- Ratings vs. market
- −0.2 pts
- OTT: Elo 59.1%, market 59.3%
- Fair odds
- OTT -146
- NJ +146 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- NJ 2.5 – 3.0 OTT
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 5.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | NJ | OTT | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1481 | 1506 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +3 | +7 | NJ: Jake Allen: team allows 0.08 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈41 weighted starts) · OTT: Linus Ullmark: team allows 0.17 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈45 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | OTT +64 Elo | OTT 59.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | OTT 59.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | OTT 59.2% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | OTT 59.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| NJ | Stat | OTT |
|---|---|---|
| 28th of 322.7 | Goals scored | 3.49th of 32 |
| 15th of 323.1 | Goals allowed | 3.325th of 32 |
| 26th of 32−0.4 | Margin | +0.115th of 32 |
| 10th of 3251.5% | Shot share | 53.3%4th of 32 |
| 20th of 3289.5% | Save percentage | 87.1%32nd of 32 |
| 8th of 326–4 | Last 10 | 5–512th of 32 |
| 13th of 3215–14 | Road vs home | 13–1422nd of 32 |
| 2nd of 321506 | Opponent Elo | 150116th of 32 |
| 23rd of 321481 | Elo rating | 150615th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  NJ |  OTT |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 19–35 | 22–31 |
| Last 10 | 3–7 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 5–27 | 10–26 |
| Underdog | 14–8 | 12–5 |
| Overs–unders | 23–31 | 32–21 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
NJ 4–3 OTT in their last 7 meetings; the forecast called 1 of 7.