Ottawa Senators at Pittsburgh Penguins, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors PIT; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Senators- Tim StutzleGoals1
- Drake BathersonAssists2
- Tim StutzlePoints2
Penguins- Egor ChinakhovGoals1
- Egor ChinakhovAssists1
- Egor ChinakhovPoints2
Scoring summary
- P314:52Claude Giroux Goal (11) Deflected, assists: Tim Stützle (33), Drake Batherson (29)3–2
- P38:48Thomas Novak Goal (10) Wrist Shot, assists: Ryan Shea (19), Egor Chinakhov (6)2–2
- P36:46Tim Stützle Goal (26) Backhand, assists: Drake Batherson (28), Jordan Spence (14)2–1
- P21:35Michael Amadio Goal (8) Wrist Shot, assists: Tyler Kleven (10), Shane Pinto (13)1–1
- P17:57Egor Chinakhov Goal (10) Wrist Shot, assists: Evgeni Malkin (30), Parker Wotherspoon (15)0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P17:57Egor Chinakhov Goal (10) Wrist Shot, assists: Evgeni Malkin (30), Parker Wotherspoon (15)OTT 0 – 1 PIT · PIT 46% → 61% +15PIT 46% → 61%+15 pts
- P21:35Michael Amadio Goal (8) Wrist Shot, assists: Tyler Kleven (10), Shane Pinto (13)OTT 1 – 1 PIT · OTT 36% → 53% +18OTT 36% → 53%+18 pts
- P36:46Tim Stützle Goal (26) Backhand, assists: Drake Batherson (28), Jordan Spence (14)OTT 2 – 1 PIT · OTT 52% → 80% +28OTT 52% → 80%+28 pts
- P38:48Thomas Novak Goal (10) Wrist Shot, assists: Ryan Shea (19), Egor Chinakhov (6)OTT 2 – 2 PIT · PIT 19% → 48% +30PIT 19% → 48%+30 pts
- P314:52Claude Giroux Goal (11) Deflected, assists: Tim Stützle (33), Drake Batherson (29)OTT 3 – 2 PIT · OTT 51% → 90% +39OTT 51% → 90%+39 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Senators 54%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 51.2% of 926 graded games.
- Market
- OTT 54%
- ML OTT -130 / PIT +110
- Pre-line forecast
- OTT 52%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- OTT 47%
- Ratings vs. market
- −7.2 pts
- OTT: Elo 47.0%, market 54.3%
- Fair odds
- OTT -119
- PIT +119 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- OTT 3.4 – 3.1 PIT
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | OTT | PIT | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1509 | 1506 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +8 | −3 | OTT: Linus Ullmark: team allows 0.20 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈45 weighted starts) · PIT: Arturs Silovs: team allows 0.07 more goals than with its usual starter (≈30 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | PIT +21 Elo | PIT 53.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | OTT 53.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | OTT 52.0% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | OTT 54.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| OTT | Stat | PIT |
|---|---|---|
| 9th of 323.4 | Goals scored | 3.47th of 32 |
| 23rd of 323.3 | Goals allowed | 3.010th of 32 |
| 14th of 32+0.1 | Margin | +0.46th of 32 |
| 4th of 3253.4% | Shot share | 51.6%9th of 32 |
| 32nd of 3287.3% | Save percentage | 89.8%16th of 32 |
| 7th of 326–4 | Last 10 | 7–34th of 32 |
| 19th of 3212–14 | Road vs home | 12–1424th of 32 |
| 20th of 321500 | Opponent Elo | 149232nd of 32 |
| 13th of 321509 | Elo rating | 150616th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  OTT |  PIT |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 23–31 | 32–21 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 11–26 | 9–15 |
| Underdog | 12–5 | 23–6 |
| Overs–unders | 32–22 | 28–25 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
OTT 6–1 PIT in their last 7 meetings; the forecast called 5 of 7.