Toronto Maple Leafs at Tampa Bay Lightning, NHL forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors TB; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Maple Leafs- Matthew KniesGoals1
- William NylanderAssists2
- Matthew KniesPoints2
Lightning- Brayden PointGoals2
- Gage GoncalvesAssists2
- Brayden PointPoints3
Scoring summary
- P317:13Matthew Knies Goal (15) Snap Shot, assists: William Nylander (36), Auston Matthews (23)2–4
- P316:30Brayden Point Goal (13) Wrist Shot, assists: Nikita Kucherov (64), Gage Goncalves (13)1–4
- P316:19John Tavares Goal (21) Wrist Shot, assists: William Nylander (35), Matthew Knies (33)1–3
- P32:59Nikita Kucherov Goal (30) Slap Shot, assists: Gage Goncalves (12), Brayden Point (20)0–3
- P27:58Gage Goncalves Goal (7) Wrist Shot, assists: Nikita Kucherov (63), Charle-Edouard D'Astous (16)0–2
- P27:07Brayden Point Goal (12) Wrist Shot, assists: Charle-Edouard D'Astous (15), Pontus Holmberg (9)0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P27:07Brayden Point Goal (12) Wrist Shot, assists: Charle-Edouard D'Astous (15), Pontus Holmberg (9)TOR 0 – 1 TB · TB 62% → 79% +17TB 62% → 79%+17 pts
- P27:58Gage Goncalves Goal (7) Wrist Shot, assists: Nikita Kucherov (63), Charle-Edouard D'Astous (16)TOR 0 – 2 TB · TB 79% → 90% +11TB 79% → 90%+11 pts
- P32:59Nikita Kucherov Goal (30) Slap Shot, assists: Gage Goncalves (12), Brayden Point (20)TOR 0 – 3 TB · TB 94% → 99% +4TB 94% → 99%+4 pts
- P316:19John Tavares Goal (21) Wrist Shot, assists: William Nylander (35), Matthew Knies (33)TOR 1 – 3 TB · TOR <1% → <1% +0TOR <1% → <1%+0 pts
- P316:30Brayden Point Goal (13) Wrist Shot, assists: Nikita Kucherov (64), Gage Goncalves (13)TOR 1 – 4 TB · TB >99% → >99% +0TB >99% → >99%+0 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Lightning 66%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 65–70% have won 67.6% of 306 graded games.
- Market
- TB 66%
- ML TOR +185 / TB -225
- Pre-line forecast
- TB 65%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- TB 66%
- Ratings vs. market
- −0.7 pts
- TB: Elo 65.7%, market 66.4%
- Fair odds
- TB -197
- TOR +197 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- TOR 2.8 – 3.7 TB
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | TOR | TB | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1513 | 1589 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +8 | +9 | TOR: Anthony Stolarz: team allows 0.19 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈40 weighted starts) · TB: Andrei Vasilevskiy: team allows 0.22 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈48 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | TB +113 Elo | TB 65.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | TB 64.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | TB 64.5% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | TB 66.4% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| TOR | Stat | TB |
|---|---|---|
| 14th of 323.3 | Goals scored | 3.62nd of 32 |
| 27th of 323.4 | Goals allowed | 2.52nd of 32 |
| 19th of 32−0.1 | Margin | +1.12nd of 32 |
| 30th of 3246.3% | Shot share | 51.6%8th of 32 |
| 13th of 3289.9% | Save percentage | 90.9%3rd of 32 |
| 18th of 324–6 | Last 10 | 8–22nd of 32 |
| 24th of 3211–15 | Road vs home | 17–94th of 32 |
| 14th of 321501 | Opponent Elo | 149625th of 32 |
| 14th of 321513 | Elo rating | 15891st of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  TOR |  TB |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 24–33 | 27–28 |
| Last 10 | 3–7 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 7–24 | 17–28 |
| Underdog | 17–9 | 10–0 |
| Overs–unders | 33–24 | 28–27 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
TOR 7–2 TB in their last 9 meetings; the forecast called 5 of 9.