Toronto Maple Leafs at Calgary Flames, NHL forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors CGY; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Maple Leafs- William NylanderGoals1
- William NylanderAssists2
- William NylanderPoints3
Flames- Joel FarabeeGoals1
- Joel FarabeeAssists1
- Joel FarabeePoints2
Scoring summary
- P319:35Bobby McMann Goal (18) Wrist Shot, assists: Scott Laughton (3), Brandon Carlo (5)4–2
- P215:46Joel Farabee Goal (12) Tip-In, assists: Nazem Kadri (27), MacKenzie Weegar (15)3–2
- P213:15Nazem Kadri Goal (10) Wrist Shot, assists: Joel Farabee (11), Joel Hanley (7)3–1
- P29:10Troy Stecher Goal (3) Backhand, assists: William Nylander (33), Auston Matthews (21)3–0
- P27:17Matias Maccelli Goal (8) Snap Shot, assists: William Nylander (32)2–0
- P10:35William Nylander Goal (18) Wrist Shot, assists: John Tavares (27)1–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P10:35William Nylander Goal (18) Wrist Shot, assists: John Tavares (27)TOR 1 – 0 CGY · TOR 53% → 67% +14TOR 53% → 67%+14 pts
- P27:17Matias Maccelli Goal (8) Snap Shot, assists: William Nylander (32)TOR 2 – 0 CGY · TOR 71% → 85% +14TOR 71% → 85%+14 pts
- P29:10Troy Stecher Goal (3) Backhand, assists: William Nylander (33), Auston Matthews (21)TOR 3 – 0 CGY · TOR 86% → 94% +9TOR 86% → 94%+9 pts
- P213:15Nazem Kadri Goal (10) Wrist Shot, assists: Joel Farabee (11), Joel Hanley (7)TOR 3 – 1 CGY · CGY 5% → 13% +8CGY 5% → 13%+8 pts
- P215:46Joel Farabee Goal (12) Tip-In, assists: Nazem Kadri (27), MacKenzie Weegar (15)TOR 3 – 2 CGY · CGY 12% → 27% +15CGY 12% → 27%+15 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Maple Leafs 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 51.2% of 926 graded games.
- Market
- TOR 53%
- ML TOR -122 / CGY +102
- Pre-line forecast
- TOR 52%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- TOR 50%
- Ratings vs. market
- −2.7 pts
- TOR: Elo 49.9%, market 52.6%
- Fair odds
- TOR -111
- CGY +111 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- TOR 3.3 – 3.2 CGY
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | TOR | CGY | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1503 | 1464 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | −3 | +1 | TOR: Joseph Woll: team allows 0.07 more goals than with its usual starter (≈43 weighted starts) · CGY: Dustin Wolf: team allows 0.02 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈44 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | CGY 0 Elo | CGY 50.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | TOR 52.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | TOR 52.3% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | TOR 52.6% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| TOR | Stat | CGY |
|---|---|---|
| 14th of 323.3 | Goals scored | 2.532nd of 32 |
| 28th of 323.5 | Goals allowed | 3.010th of 32 |
| 21st of 32−0.2 | Margin | −0.528th of 32 |
| 29th of 3246.5% | Shot share | 50.2%16th of 32 |
| 17th of 3289.8% | Save percentage | 90.4%8th of 32 |
| 29th of 322–8 | Last 10 | 4–619th of 32 |
| 29th of 329–15 | Road vs home | 14–1318th of 32 |
| 12th of 321502 | Opponent Elo | 149430th of 32 |
| 18th of 321503 | Elo rating | 146427th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  TOR |  CGY |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 22–33 | 29–25 |
| Last 10 | 2–8 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 6–24 | 7–8 |
| Underdog | 16–9 | 22–17 |
| Overs–unders | 32–23 | 29–25 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 7–3 | 3–7 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
TOR 5–0 CGY in their last 5 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 5.