Toronto Maple Leafs at Vancouver Canucks, NHL forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors VAN; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Maple Leafs- Max DomiGoals1
- Oliver Ekman-LarssonAssists1
- Max DomiPoints1
Canucks- Tom WillanderGoals1
- Evander KaneAssists1
- Jonathan LekkerimakiPoints1
Scoring summary
- SO0:00Auston Matthews Goal Backhand2–0
- SO0:00William Nylander Goal Backhand2–0
- P32:32Max Domi Goal (9) Snap Shot, assists: Auston Matthews (20), Bobby McMann (13)2–2
- P214:45Tom Willander Goal (4) Snap Shot, assists: Evander Kane (16), Elias Pettersson (21)1–2
- P213:34Nicolas Roy Goal (5) Slap Shot, assists: Nicholas Robertson (14), Oliver Ekman-Larsson (25)1–1
- P21:55Jonathan Lekkerimäki Goal (2) Snap Shot, assists: Liam Ohgren (4), Pierre-Olivier Joseph (3)0–1
Turning points
The 4 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P21:55Jonathan Lekkerimäki Goal (2) Snap Shot, assists: Liam Ohgren (4), Pierre-Olivier Joseph (3)TOR 0 – 1 VAN · VAN 43% → 61% +18VAN 43% → 61%+18 pts
- P213:34Nicolas Roy Goal (5) Slap Shot, assists: Nicholas Robertson (14), Oliver Ekman-Larsson (25)TOR 1 – 1 VAN · TOR 35% → 56% +22TOR 35% → 56%+22 pts
- P214:45Tom Willander Goal (4) Snap Shot, assists: Evander Kane (16), Elias Pettersson (21)TOR 1 – 2 VAN · VAN 44% → 66% +22VAN 44% → 66%+22 pts
- P32:32Max Domi Goal (9) Snap Shot, assists: Auston Matthews (20), Bobby McMann (13)TOR 2 – 2 VAN · TOR 29% → 55% +26TOR 29% → 55%+26 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Maple Leafs 59%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- TOR 59%
- ML TOR -162 / VAN +136
- Pre-line forecast
- TOR 55%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- TOR 54%
- Ratings vs. market
- −5.7 pts
- TOR: Elo 53.6%, market 59.3%
- Fair odds
- TOR -146
- VAN +146 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- TOR 3.5 – 3.0 VAN
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | TOR | VAN | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1501 | 1432 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | −4 | +4 | TOR: Joseph Woll: team allows 0.11 more goals than with its usual starter (≈43 weighted starts) · VAN: Nikita Tolopilo: team allows 0.09 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈7 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | TOR +25 Elo | TOR 53.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | TOR 54.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | TOR 54.7% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | TOR 59.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| TOR | Stat | VAN |
|---|---|---|
| 13th of 323.3 | Goals scored | 2.630th of 32 |
| 30th of 323.5 | Goals allowed | 3.632nd of 32 |
| 22nd of 32−0.2 | Margin | −1.032nd of 32 |
| 30th of 3246.2% | Shot share | 47.4%26th of 32 |
| 18th of 3289.7% | Save percentage | 88.8%24th of 32 |
| 28th of 322–8 | Last 10 | 2–828th of 32 |
| 30th of 328–15 | Road vs home | 6–2032nd of 32 |
| 7th of 321503 | Opponent Elo | 149823rd of 32 |
| 18th of 321501 | Elo rating | 143231st of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  TOR |  VAN |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 22–32 | 27–27 |
| Last 10 | 3–7 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 6–23 | 1–9 |
| Underdog | 16–9 | 26–18 |
| Overs–unders | 32–22 | 30–24 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 8–2 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
TOR 2–3 VAN in their last 5 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 5.