San Jose Sharks at Vancouver Canucks, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors VAN; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Sharks- Macklin CelebriniGoals1
- Macklin CelebriniAssists3
- Macklin CelebriniPoints4
Canucks- Tom WillanderGoals1
- Jake DeBruskAssists2
- Jake DeBruskPoints2
Scoring summary
- P39:15Filip Hronek Goal (5) Slap Shot, assists: Elias Pettersson (20), Jake DeBrusk (14)5–2
- P30:28John Klingberg Goal (10) Wrist Shot, assists: Will Smith (21), Macklin Celebrini (51)5–1
- P29:07Will Smith Goal (15) Snap Shot, assists: John Klingberg (9), Macklin Celebrini (50)4–1
- P15:55Tyler Toffoli Goal (15) Snap Shot, assists: Alexander Wennberg (25), Sam Dickinson (7)3–1
- P14:43Adam Gaudette Goal (11) Snap Shot, assists: William Eklund (21), Macklin Celebrini (49)2–1
- P11:51Macklin Celebrini Goal (27) Slap Shot, assists: Will Smith (20), Sam Dickinson (6)1–1
- P11:15Tom Willander Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: Elias Pettersson (19), Jake DeBrusk (13)0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P11:15Tom Willander Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: Elias Pettersson (19), Jake DeBrusk (13)SJ 0 – 1 VAN · VAN 45% → 60% +15VAN 45% → 60%+15 pts
- P11:51Macklin Celebrini Goal (27) Slap Shot, assists: Will Smith (20), Sam Dickinson (6)SJ 1 – 1 VAN · SJ 40% → 55% +15SJ 40% → 55%+15 pts
- P14:43Adam Gaudette Goal (11) Snap Shot, assists: William Eklund (21), Macklin Celebrini (49)SJ 2 – 1 VAN · SJ 55% → 69% +14SJ 55% → 69%+14 pts
- P15:55Tyler Toffoli Goal (15) Snap Shot, assists: Alexander Wennberg (25), Sam Dickinson (7)SJ 3 – 1 VAN · SJ 69% → 81% +12SJ 69% → 81%+12 pts
- P29:07Will Smith Goal (15) Snap Shot, assists: John Klingberg (9), Macklin Celebrini (50)SJ 4 – 1 VAN · SJ 87% → 95% +8SJ 87% → 95%+8 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Sharks 55%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- SJ 55%
- ML SJ -135 / VAN +114
- Pre-line forecast
- SJ 51%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- SJ 45%
- Ratings vs. market
- −10.0 pts
- SJ: Elo 45.1%, market 55.1%
- Fair odds
- SJ -123
- VAN +123 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- SJ 3.4 – 3.1 VAN
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | SJ | VAN | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1439 | 1433 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | −11 | −6 | SJ: Yaroslav Askarov: team allows 0.27 more goals than with its usual starter (≈29 weighted starts) · VAN: Kevin Lankinen: team allows 0.16 more goals than with its usual starter (≈42 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | VAN +34 Elo | VAN 54.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | SJ 52.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | SJ 50.8% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | SJ 55.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| SJ | Stat | VAN |
|---|---|---|
| 17th of 323.1 | Goals scored | 2.729th of 32 |
| 30th of 323.5 | Goals allowed | 3.732nd of 32 |
| 25th of 32−0.4 | Margin | −1.031st of 32 |
| 32nd of 3245.4% | Shot share | 47.6%27th of 32 |
| 21st of 3289.3% | Save percentage | 88.6%26th of 32 |
| 8th of 326–4 | Last 10 | 1–932nd of 32 |
| 15th of 3212–12 | Road vs home | 5–1932nd of 32 |
| 1st of 321508 | Opponent Elo | 149920th of 32 |
| 30th of 321439 | Elo rating | 143331st of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  SJ |  VAN |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 33–17 | 26–26 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 1–1 | 1–9 |
| Underdog | 32–16 | 25–17 |
| Overs–unders | 25–25 | 29–23 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
SJ 3–7 VAN in their last 10 meetings; the forecast called 7 of 10.