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Anaheim Ducks at Vancouver Canucks, NHL forecast

FinalESPN+, KCOP, Victory+

Away

Ducks

28-23-3

0–2

at

Home

Canucks

18-31-5

ANA 58%VAN 42%

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Rogers Arena · ESPN+, KCOP, Victory+

Win probability

Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors VAN; hover for each play.

VAN favored ANA favored2 scoring plays
P1P2P3VAN50%ANA

Game center

From the ESPN box score.

Top performers

Ducks
    Canucks

    Scoring summary

    • P319:32Teddy Blueger Goal (4) Wrist Shot, assists: Filip Hronek (27)0–2
    • P310:18Drew O'Connor Goal (13) Slap Shot, assists: Jake DeBrusk (15)0–1

    Turning points

    The 2 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.

    1. P310:18Drew O'Connor Goal (13) Slap Shot, assists: Jake DeBrusk (15)ANA 0 – 1 VAN · VAN 47% → 79% +33
    2. P319:32Teddy Blueger Goal (4) Wrist Shot, assists: Filip Hronek (27)ANA 0 – 2 VAN · VAN >99% → 100% +0

    The pick

    Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.

    Ducks 58%

    LeanMiss
    ANA 58%VAN 42%

    Forecast Elo ratings alone

    How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.

    Market
    ANA 58%
    ML ANA -155 / VAN +130
    Pre-line forecast
    ANA 52%
    Elo + market-implied
    Elo ratings
    ANA 53%
    Ratings vs. market
    −5.4 pts
    ANA: Elo 52.9%, market 58.3%
    Fair odds
    ANA -140
    VAN +140 · the forecast as odds, no margin
    Pregame projection
    ANA 3.5 – 3.0 VAN
    Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5

    How the number is built

    Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.

    FactorANAVANWhy
    Team rating14711428Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average
    Home field—+35Worth 35 Elo in the NHL
    Starting goalies+5−8ANA: Lukas Dostal: team allows 0.12 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈45 weighted starts) · VAN: Nikita Tolopilo: team allows 0.21 more goals than with its usual starter (≈6 weighted starts)
    Elo ratingsANA +20 EloANA 52.9%
    Market-implied ratingsANA 51.5%Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context
    Pre-line forecastANA 51.8%20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend)
    ForecastANA 58.3%Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate

    Tale of the tape

    This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.

    Try another venue →
    Anaheim Ducks and Vancouver Canucks compared, with each team's league rank
    ANAStatVAN
    10th of 323.3Goals scored2.728th of 32
    31st of 323.5Goals allowed3.732nd of 32
    22nd of 32−0.2Margin−1.032nd of 32
    11th of 3251.1%Shot share47.5%27th of 32
    25th of 3288.5%Save percentage88.5%26th of 32
    3rd of 327–3Last 101–932nd of 32
    19th of 3213–16Road vs home5–2032nd of 32
    11th of 321502Opponent Elo149822nd of 32
    25th of 321471Elo rating142831st of 32

    Rating history

    Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.

    DucksCanucks
    13501400145015001550league averageNovFebMayAugNov

    Recent form

    Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.

    Against the line

    How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.

    This seasonANAVAN
    Puck line27–2626–27
    Last 107–35–5
    Favorite3–101–9
    Underdog24–1625–18
    Overs–unders34–1930–23
    Overs–unders, last 105–55–5

    Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.

    Head to head

    ANA 1–7 VAN in their last 8 meetings; the forecast called 5 of 8.