Anaheim Ducks at Edmonton Oilers, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors EDM; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Ducks- Mikael GranlundGoals3
- Beckett SenneckeAssists2
- Mikael GranlundPoints3
Oilers- Mattias EkholmGoals3
- Leon DraisaitlAssists4
- Leon DraisaitlPoints4
Scoring summary
- P319:49Mattias Ekholm Goal (6) Wrist Shot, assists: Leon Draisaitl (49)4–7
- P318:12Connor McDavid Goal (33) Wrist Shot, assists: Leon Draisaitl (48), Evan Bouchard (42)4–6
- P313:38Mikael Granlund Goal (12) Snap Shot, assists: Beckett Sennecke (25), Jackson LaCombe (28)4–5
- P213:41Mikael Granlund Goal (11) Snap Shot, assists: Beckett Sennecke (24)3–5
- P28:25Mattias Ekholm Goal (5) Snap Shot, assists: Matt Savoie (9)2–5
- P27:34Darnell Nurse Goal (7) Snap Shot, assists: none2–4
- P26:28Mattias Ekholm Goal (4) Tip-In, assists: Zach Hyman (14), Connor McDavid (59)2–3
- P24:36Spencer Stastney Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Ty Emberson (9), Leon Draisaitl (47)2–2
- P20:55Alex Killorn Goal (6) Wrist Shot, assists: Ryan Poehling (15), Jacob Trouba (14)2–1
- P117:14Zach Hyman Goal (21) Wrist Shot, assists: Ryan Nugent-Hopkins (30), Leon Draisaitl (46)1–1
- P13:24Mikael Granlund Goal (10) Snap Shot, assists: Chris Kreider (11), Cutter Gauthier (24)1–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P13:24Mikael Granlund Goal (10) Snap Shot, assists: Chris Kreider (11), Cutter Gauthier (24)ANA 1 – 0 EDM · ANA 31% → 45% +14ANA 31% → 45%+14 pts
- P117:14Zach Hyman Goal (21) Wrist Shot, assists: Ryan Nugent-Hopkins (30), Leon Draisaitl (46)ANA 1 – 1 EDM · EDM 50% → 67% +17EDM 50% → 67%+17 pts
- P20:55Alex Killorn Goal (6) Wrist Shot, assists: Ryan Poehling (15), Jacob Trouba (14)ANA 2 – 1 EDM · ANA 34% → 51% +18ANA 34% → 51%+18 pts
- P24:36Spencer Stastney Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Ty Emberson (9), Leon Draisaitl (47)ANA 2 – 2 EDM · EDM 47% → 66% +19EDM 47% → 66%+19 pts
- P26:28Mattias Ekholm Goal (4) Tip-In, assists: Zach Hyman (14), Connor McDavid (59)ANA 2 – 3 EDM · EDM 65% → 81% +16EDM 65% → 81%+16 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Oilers 70%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 70–75% have won 76.2% of 172 graded games.
- Market
- EDM 70%
- ML ANA +220 / EDM -270
- Pre-line forecast
- EDM 67%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- EDM 68%
- Ratings vs. market
- −2.0 pts
- EDM: Elo 68.0%, market 70.0%
- Fair odds
- EDM -234
- ANA +234 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- ANA 2.7 – 3.8 EDM
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | ANA | EDM | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1473 | 1535 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Rest | −30 | — | ANA on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Starting goalies | −4 | 0 | ANA: Ville Husso: team allows 0.10 more goals than with its usual starter (≈27 weighted starts) · EDM: Tristan Jarry: team allows 0.01 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈44 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | EDM +131 Elo | EDM 68.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | EDM 66.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | EDM 67.1% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | EDM 70.0% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| ANA | Stat | EDM |
|---|---|---|
| 10th of 323.3 | Goals scored | 3.45th of 32 |
| 31st of 323.5 | Goals allowed | 3.222nd of 32 |
| 18th of 32−0.2 | Margin | +0.212th of 32 |
| 11th of 3251.0% | Shot share | 52.3%7th of 32 |
| 26th of 3288.6% | Save percentage | 88.7%24th of 32 |
| 5th of 327–3 | Last 10 | 5–513th of 32 |
| 18th of 3213–15 | Road vs home | 13–1216th of 32 |
| 11th of 321502 | Opponent Elo | 149429th of 32 |
| 24th of 321473 | Elo rating | 15356th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  ANA |  EDM |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 27–25 | 21–32 |
| Last 10 | 7–3 | 3–7 |
| Favorite | 3–10 | 16–29 |
| Underdog | 24–15 | 5–3 |
| Overs–unders | 33–19 | 30–23 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
ANA 3–5 EDM in their last 8 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 8.