Anaheim Ducks at Calgary Flames, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors CGY; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Ducks- Beckett SenneckeGoals3
- Alex KillornAssists2
- Beckett SenneckePoints3
Flames- Matt CoronatoGoals1
- Matt CoronatoAssists1
- Matt CoronatoPoints2
Scoring summary
- OT2:54Beckett Sennecke Goal (18) Wrist Shot, assists: Jackson LaCombe (27)4–3
- P313:08Chris Kreider Goal (17) Snap Shot, assists: Ryan Poehling (14), Cutter Gauthier (23)3–3
- P34:50Matt Coronato Goal (14) Wrist Shot, assists: Matvei Gridin (2), Nazem Kadri (26)2–3
- P212:41Beckett Sennecke Goal (17) Wrist Shot, assists: Mikael Granlund (14), Alex Killorn (11)2–2
- P23:22Beckett Sennecke Goal (16) Snap Shot, assists: Alex Killorn (10), Mikael Granlund (13)1–2
- P17:56Hunter Brzustewicz Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Adam Klapka (7), Joel Farabee (10)0–2
- P16:17Jonathan Huberdeau Goal (9) Wrist Shot, assists: Mikael Backlund (20), Matt Coronato (14)0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P16:17Jonathan Huberdeau Goal (9) Wrist Shot, assists: Mikael Backlund (20), Matt Coronato (14)ANA 0 – 1 CGY · CGY 50% → 65% +15CGY 50% → 65%+15 pts
- P212:41Beckett Sennecke Goal (17) Wrist Shot, assists: Mikael Granlund (14), Alex Killorn (11)ANA 2 – 2 CGY · ANA 30% → 50% +21ANA 30% → 50%+21 pts
- P34:50Matt Coronato Goal (14) Wrist Shot, assists: Matvei Gridin (2), Nazem Kadri (26)ANA 2 – 3 CGY · CGY 50% → 76% +27CGY 50% → 76%+27 pts
- P313:08Chris Kreider Goal (17) Snap Shot, assists: Ryan Poehling (14), Cutter Gauthier (23)ANA 3 – 3 CGY · ANA 14% → 50% +36ANA 14% → 50%+36 pts
- OT2:54Beckett Sennecke Goal (18) Wrist Shot, assists: Jackson LaCombe (27)ANA 4 – 3 CGY · ANA 50% → 97% +47ANA 50% → 97%+47 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Ducks 50%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 51.2% of 926 graded games.
- Market
- ANA 50%
- ML ANA -112 / CGY -108
- Pre-line forecast
- ANA 48%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- ANA 46%
- Ratings vs. market
- −4.6 pts
- ANA: Elo 45.8%, market 50.4%
- Fair odds
- ANA -102
- CGY +102 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- ANA 2.8 – 2.7 CGY
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 5.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | ANA | CGY | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1471 | 1468 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +4 | +1 | ANA: Lukas Dostal: team allows 0.11 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈45 weighted starts) · CGY: Dustin Wolf: team allows 0.02 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈44 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | CGY +29 Elo | CGY 54.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CGY 51.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CGY 52.4% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | ANA 50.4% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| ANA | Stat | CGY |
|---|---|---|
| 10th of 323.3 | Goals scored | 2.531st of 32 |
| 31st of 323.5 | Goals allowed | 3.09th of 32 |
| 20th of 32−0.2 | Margin | −0.529th of 32 |
| 10th of 3251.2% | Shot share | 49.5%18th of 32 |
| 27th of 3288.6% | Save percentage | 90.5%8th of 32 |
| 8th of 326–4 | Last 10 | 3–726th of 32 |
| 22nd of 3212–15 | Road vs home | 13–1216th of 32 |
| 11th of 321502 | Opponent Elo | 149429th of 32 |
| 26th of 321471 | Elo rating | 146827th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  ANA |  CGY |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 26–25 | 29–22 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 3–10 | 7–6 |
| Underdog | 23–15 | 22–16 |
| Overs–unders | 32–19 | 28–23 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 3–7 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
ANA 2–5 CGY in their last 7 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 7.