Toronto Maple Leafs at Seattle Kraken, NHL forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors SEA; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Maple Leafs- Nick RobertsonGoals1
- Max DomiAssists1
- Morgan RiellyPoints1
Kraken- Shane WrightGoals2
- Brandon MontourAssists1
- Shane WrightPoints2
Scoring summary
- P317:23Jared McCann Goal (15) Wrist Shot, assists: Jamie Oleksiak (6)2–5
- P38:32Shane Wright Goal (9) Wrist Shot, assists: Brandon Montour (15)2–4
- P36:04Morgan Rielly Goal (7) Wrist Shot, assists: Max Domi (21)2–3
- P26:54Brandon Montour Goal (7) Wrist Shot, assists: Freddy Gaudreau (11), Chandler Stephenson (19)1–3
- P26:23Shane Wright Goal (8) Backhand, assists: Jaden Schwartz (10), Adam Larsson (9)1–2
- P115:02Nicholas Robertson Goal (12) Slap Shot, assists: none1–1
- P11:21Matty Beniers Goal (14) Wrist Shot, assists: Jared McCann (13), Jordan Eberle (18)0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P115:02Nicholas Robertson Goal (12) Slap Shot, assists: noneTOR 1 – 1 SEA · TOR 35% → 52% +16TOR 35% → 52%+16 pts
- P26:23Shane Wright Goal (8) Backhand, assists: Jaden Schwartz (10), Adam Larsson (9)TOR 1 – 2 SEA · SEA 49% → 68% +19SEA 49% → 68%+19 pts
- P26:54Brandon Montour Goal (7) Wrist Shot, assists: Freddy Gaudreau (11), Chandler Stephenson (19)TOR 1 – 3 SEA · SEA 68% → 83% +15SEA 68% → 83%+15 pts
- P36:04Morgan Rielly Goal (7) Wrist Shot, assists: Max Domi (21)TOR 2 – 3 SEA · TOR 7% → 23% +16TOR 7% → 23%+16 pts
- P38:32Shane Wright Goal (9) Wrist Shot, assists: Brandon Montour (15)TOR 2 – 4 SEA · SEA 79% → 95% +16SEA 79% → 95%+16 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Maple Leafs 52%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 51.2% of 926 graded games.
- Market
- TOR 52%
- ML TOR -118 / SEA -102
- Pre-line forecast
- TOR 51%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- TOR 50%
- Ratings vs. market
- −2.0 pts
- TOR: Elo 49.7%, market 51.7%
- Fair odds
- TOR -107
- SEA +107 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- TOR 3.3 – 3.2 SEA
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | TOR | SEA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1505 | 1478 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +9 | +3 | TOR: Anthony Stolarz: team allows 0.24 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈40 weighted starts) · SEA: Joey Daccord: team allows 0.08 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈46 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | SEA +2 Elo | SEA 50.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | TOR 51.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | TOR 51.2% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | TOR 51.7% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| TOR | Stat | SEA |
|---|---|---|
| 13th of 323.3 | Goals scored | 2.825th of 32 |
| 28th of 323.5 | Goals allowed | 3.010th of 32 |
| 18th of 32−0.2 | Margin | −0.117th of 32 |
| 30th of 3246.0% | Shot share | 46.5%29th of 32 |
| 17th of 3289.8% | Save percentage | 90.8%5th of 32 |
| 25th of 323–7 | Last 10 | 4–621st of 32 |
| 29th of 328–14 | Road vs home | 13–1421st of 32 |
| 7th of 321503 | Opponent Elo | 149330th of 32 |
| 16th of 321505 | Elo rating | 147823rd of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  TOR |  SEA |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 22–31 | 35–17 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 6–22 | 3–4 |
| Underdog | 16–9 | 32–13 |
| Overs–unders | 31–22 | 21–31 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 7–3 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
TOR 4–1 SEA in their last 5 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 5.