Calgary Flames at Minnesota Wild, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors MIN; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Flames- Morgan FrostGoals1
- Jonathan HuberdeauAssists1
- Morgan FrostPoints1
Wild- Kirill KaprizovGoals1
- Kirill KaprizovAssists1
- Kirill KaprizovPoints2
Scoring summary
- P317:45Kirill Kaprizov Goal (29) Wrist Shot, assists: Brock Faber (22), Joel Eriksson Ek (23)1–4
- P317:17Matt Boldy Goal (29) Tip-In, assists: Kirill Kaprizov (37), Quinn Hughes (46)1–3
- P35:49Morgan Frost Goal (11) Wrist Shot, assists: Jonathan Huberdeau (14)1–2
- P110:37Vincent Hinostroza Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: Jake Middleton (10), Jared Spurgeon (11)0–2
- P12:43Danila Yurov Goal (8) Snap Shot, assists: Vladimir Tarasenko (16), Daemon Hunt (5)0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P12:43Danila Yurov Goal (8) Snap Shot, assists: Vladimir Tarasenko (16), Daemon Hunt (5)CGY 0 – 1 MIN · MIN 62% → 75% +13MIN 62% → 75%+13 pts
- P110:37Vincent Hinostroza Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: Jake Middleton (10), Jared Spurgeon (11)CGY 0 – 2 MIN · MIN 75% → 86% +11MIN 75% → 86%+11 pts
- P35:49Morgan Frost Goal (11) Wrist Shot, assists: Jonathan Huberdeau (14)CGY 1 – 2 MIN · CGY 5% → 18% +13CGY 5% → 18%+13 pts
- P317:17Matt Boldy Goal (29) Tip-In, assists: Kirill Kaprizov (37), Quinn Hughes (46)CGY 1 – 3 MIN · MIN 96% → >99% +4MIN 96% → >99%+4 pts
- P317:45Kirill Kaprizov Goal (29) Wrist Shot, assists: Brock Faber (22), Joel Eriksson Ek (23)CGY 1 – 4 MIN · MIN >99% → >99% +0MIN >99% → >99%+0 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Wild 62%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 62.4% of 599 graded games.
- Market
- MIN 62%
- ML CGY +154 / MIN -185
- Pre-line forecast
- MIN 64%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIN 62%
- Ratings vs. market
- +0.2 pts
- MIN: Elo 62.4%, market 62.2%
- Fair odds
- MIN -165
- CGY +165 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CGY 2.4 – 3.1 MIN
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 5.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CGY | MIN | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1466 | 1522 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +1 | −1 | CGY: Devin Cooley: team allows 0.03 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈17 weighted starts) · MIN: Filip Gustavsson: team allows 0.04 more goals than with its usual starter (≈47 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | MIN +88 Elo | MIN 62.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIN 64.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIN 64.1% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | MIN 62.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| CGY | Stat | MIN |
|---|---|---|
| 31st of 322.5 | Goals scored | 3.214th of 32 |
| 11th of 323.0 | Goals allowed | 2.98th of 32 |
| 27th of 32−0.5 | Margin | +0.38th of 32 |
| 17th of 3249.8% | Shot share | 49.1%21st of 32 |
| 9th of 3290.4% | Save percentage | 90.9%4th of 32 |
| 25th of 323–7 | Last 10 | 5–515th of 32 |
| 31st of 328–18 | Road vs home | 15–1315th of 32 |
| 29th of 321494 | Opponent Elo | 149626th of 32 |
| 26th of 321466 | Elo rating | 15228th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  CGY |  MIN |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 29–23 | 28–26 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 3–7 |
| Favorite | 7–7 | 9–22 |
| Underdog | 22–16 | 19–4 |
| Overs–unders | 29–23 | 32–22 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–7 | 9–1 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
CGY 5–3 MIN in their last 8 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 8.