San Jose Sharks at Calgary Flames, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors CGY; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Sharks- Adam GaudetteGoals1
- William EklundAssists1
- Adam GaudettePoints1
Flames- Morgan FrostGoals1
- Morgan FrostAssists1
- Morgan FrostPoints2
Scoring summary
- P36:53Joel Farabee Goal (11) Backhand, assists: Mikael Backlund (21), Kevin Bahl (10)2–3
- P26:59Matvei Gridin Goal (2) Snap Shot, assists: Morgan Frost (15), MacKenzie Weegar (14)2–2
- P21:21Adam Gaudette Goal (13) Wrist Shot, assists: William Eklund (23), Michael Misa (6)2–1
- P114:44Morgan Frost Goal (12) Snap Shot, assists: Matt Coronato (15), Jonathan Huberdeau (15)1–1
- P13:11Will Smith Goal (16) Snap Shot, assists: Alexander Wennberg (26)1–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P13:11Will Smith Goal (16) Snap Shot, assists: Alexander Wennberg (26)SJ 1 – 0 CGY · SJ 50% → 65% +15SJ 50% → 65%+15 pts
- P114:44Morgan Frost Goal (12) Snap Shot, assists: Matt Coronato (15), Jonathan Huberdeau (15)SJ 1 – 1 CGY · CGY 33% → 50% +16CGY 33% → 50%+16 pts
- P21:21Adam Gaudette Goal (13) Wrist Shot, assists: William Eklund (23), Michael Misa (6)SJ 2 – 1 CGY · SJ 50% → 68% +17SJ 50% → 68%+17 pts
- P26:59Matvei Gridin Goal (2) Snap Shot, assists: Morgan Frost (15), MacKenzie Weegar (14)SJ 2 – 2 CGY · CGY 31% → 50% +19CGY 31% → 50%+19 pts
- P36:53Joel Farabee Goal (11) Backhand, assists: Mikael Backlund (21), Kevin Bahl (10)SJ 2 – 3 CGY · CGY 50% → 78% +28CGY 50% → 78%+28 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Sharks 50%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 51.2% of 926 graded games.
- Market
- SJ 50%
- ML SJ -112 / CGY -108
- Pre-line forecast
- SJ 46%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- SJ 44%
- Ratings vs. market
- −6.6 pts
- SJ: Elo 43.8%, market 50.4%
- Fair odds
- SJ -102
- CGY +102 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- SJ 3.3 – 3.2 CGY
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | SJ | CGY | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1443 | 1462 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +11 | 0 | SJ: Alex Nedeljkovic: team allows 0.28 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈41 weighted starts) · CGY: Dustin Wolf: team allows 0.00 more goals than with its usual starter (≈44 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | CGY +43 Elo | CGY 56.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CGY 53.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CGY 54.3% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | SJ 50.4% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| SJ | Stat | CGY |
|---|---|---|
| 17th of 323.2 | Goals scored | 2.531st of 32 |
| 28th of 323.5 | Goals allowed | 3.011th of 32 |
| 25th of 32−0.3 | Margin | −0.528th of 32 |
| 32nd of 3245.6% | Shot share | 49.9%17th of 32 |
| 21st of 3289.3% | Save percentage | 90.3%9th of 32 |
| 9th of 326–4 | Last 10 | 3–725th of 32 |
| 14th of 3213–13 | Road vs home | 13–1320th of 32 |
| 1st of 321507 | Opponent Elo | 149529th of 32 |
| 30th of 321443 | Elo rating | 146227th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  SJ |  CGY |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 35–17 | 29–24 |
| Last 10 | 7–3 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 2–1 | 7–7 |
| Underdog | 33–16 | 22–17 |
| Overs–unders | 27–25 | 29–24 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 3–7 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
SJ 2–7 CGY in their last 9 meetings; the forecast called 6 of 9.