San Jose Sharks at Edmonton Oilers, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors EDM; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Sharks- Adam GaudetteGoals1
- William EklundAssists1
- Adam GaudettePoints1
Oilers- Leon DraisaitlGoals1
- Leon DraisaitlAssists2
- Leon DraisaitlPoints3
Scoring summary
- OT1:06Zach Hyman Goal (22) Wrist Shot, assists: Connor McDavid (60), Evan Bouchard (44)3–4
- P319:01Evan Bouchard Goal (15) Slap Shot, assists: Leon Draisaitl (51), Mattias Ekholm (21)3–3
- P316:55Connor McDavid Goal (34) Snap Shot, assists: Leon Draisaitl (50), Ryan Nugent-Hopkins (31)3–2
- P31:34Leon Draisaitl Goal (26) Wrist Shot, assists: Evan Bouchard (43), Kasperi Kapanen (7)3–1
- P111:40Michael Misa Goal (2) Snap Shot, assists: Timothy Liljegren (10), Sam Dickinson (8)3–0
- P11:35Adam Gaudette Goal (12) Backhand, assists: William Eklund (22)2–0
- P10:26Collin Graf Goal (15) Wrist Shot, assists: Will Smith (22), Macklin Celebrini (52)1–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P10:26Collin Graf Goal (15) Wrist Shot, assists: Will Smith (22), Macklin Celebrini (52)SJ 1 – 0 EDM · SJ 37% → 51% +14SJ 37% → 51%+14 pts
- P11:35Adam Gaudette Goal (12) Backhand, assists: William Eklund (22)SJ 2 – 0 EDM · SJ 52% → 66% +14SJ 52% → 66%+14 pts
- P111:40Michael Misa Goal (2) Snap Shot, assists: Timothy Liljegren (10), Sam Dickinson (8)SJ 3 – 0 EDM · SJ 70% → 82% +13SJ 70% → 82%+13 pts
- P319:01Evan Bouchard Goal (15) Slap Shot, assists: Leon Draisaitl (51), Mattias Ekholm (21)SJ 3 – 3 EDM · EDM <1% → 52% +51EDM <1% → 52%+51 pts
- OT1:06Zach Hyman Goal (22) Wrist Shot, assists: Connor McDavid (60), Evan Bouchard (44)SJ 3 – 4 EDM · EDM 53% → 94% +40EDM 53% → 94%+40 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Oilers 63%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 62.4% of 599 graded games.
- Market
- EDM 63%
- ML SJ +160 / EDM -192
- Pre-line forecast
- EDM 63%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- EDM 69%
- Ratings vs. market
- +5.9 pts
- EDM: Elo 69.0%, market 63.1%
- Fair odds
- EDM -171
- SJ +171 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- SJ 2.9 – 3.6 EDM
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | SJ | EDM | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1444 | 1538 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | −8 | +3 | SJ: Yaroslav Askarov: team allows 0.19 more goals than with its usual starter (≈30 weighted starts) · EDM: Connor Ingram: team allows 0.07 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈24 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | EDM +139 Elo | EDM 69.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | EDM 61.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | EDM 63.3% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | EDM 63.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| SJ | Stat | EDM |
|---|---|---|
| 17th of 323.2 | Goals scored | 3.46th of 32 |
| 28th of 323.5 | Goals allowed | 3.221st of 32 |
| 25th of 32−0.3 | Margin | +0.210th of 32 |
| 31st of 3245.7% | Shot share | 52.1%7th of 32 |
| 21st of 3289.4% | Save percentage | 88.8%24th of 32 |
| 3rd of 327–3 | Last 10 | 5–515th of 32 |
| 11th of 3213–12 | Road vs home | 14–1213th of 32 |
| 2nd of 321506 | Opponent Elo | 149330th of 32 |
| 30th of 321444 | Elo rating | 15385th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  SJ |  EDM |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 34–17 | 22–32 |
| Last 10 | 7–3 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 2–1 | 17–29 |
| Underdog | 32–16 | 5–3 |
| Overs–unders | 26–25 | 31–23 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
SJ 1–6 EDM in their last 7 meetings; the forecast called 7 of 7.