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Florida Panthers at Tampa Bay Lightning, NHL forecast

FinalESPN+, Hulu

Away

Panthers

29-25-3

1–6

at

Home

Lightning

37-14-4

FLA 34%TB 66%

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Benchmark International Arena · ESPN+, Hulu

Win probability

Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors TB; hover for each play.

TB favored FLA favored7 scoring plays
P1P2P3TB50%FLA

Game center

From the ESPN box score.

Top performers

Scoring summary

  • P315:41Oliver Bjorkstrand Goal (10) Wrist Shot, assists: none1–6
  • P39:50Mackie Samoskevich Goal (6) Snap Shot, assists: Jesper Boqvist (5), Anton Lundell (24)1–5
  • P36:09Pontus Holmberg Goal (9) Poke, assists: Gage Goncalves (11), Oliver Bjorkstrand (17)0–5
  • P217:50Erik Cernak Goal (1) Wrap-around, assists: Ryan McDonagh (6), Dominic James (8)0–4
  • P21:14Jake Guentzel Goal (26) Wrist Shot, assists: Darren Raddysh (35), Nikita Kucherov (62)0–3
  • P114:08Zemgus Girgensons Goal (7) Backhand, assists: Pontus Holmberg (8), Yanni Gourde (15)0–2
  • P12:08Brandon Hagel Goal (27) Tip-In, assists: Victor Hedman (13)0–1

Turning points

The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.

  1. P12:08Brandon Hagel Goal (27) Tip-In, assists: Victor Hedman (13)FLA 0 – 1 TB · TB 65% → 78% +12
  2. P114:08Zemgus Girgensons Goal (7) Backhand, assists: Pontus Holmberg (8), Yanni Gourde (15)FLA 0 – 2 TB · TB 78% → 88% +10
  3. P21:14Jake Guentzel Goal (26) Wrist Shot, assists: Darren Raddysh (35), Nikita Kucherov (62)FLA 0 – 3 TB · TB 89% → 95% +6
  4. P217:50Erik Cernak Goal (1) Wrap-around, assists: Ryan McDonagh (6), Dominic James (8)FLA 0 – 4 TB · TB 98% → >99% +2
  5. P36:09Pontus Holmberg Goal (9) Poke, assists: Gage Goncalves (11), Oliver Bjorkstrand (17)FLA 0 – 5 TB · TB >99% → >99% +0

The pick

Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.

Lightning 66%

SolidHit
FLA 34%TB 66%

Forecast Elo ratings alone

How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 65–70% have won 67.6% of 306 graded games.

Market
TB 66%
ML FLA +180 / TB -218
Pre-line forecast
TB 67%
Elo + market-implied
Elo ratings
TB 69%
Ratings vs. market
+3.4 pts
TB: Elo 69.2%, market 65.7%
Fair odds
TB -192
FLA +192 · the forecast as odds, no margin
Pregame projection
FLA 2.3 – 3.2 TB
Margin from the forecast, posted total 5.5

How the number is built

Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.

FactorFLATBWhy
Team rating15291586Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average
Home field—+35Worth 35 Elo in the NHL
Rest−30—FLA on the second night of a back-to-back
Starting goalies−11+9FLA: Daniil Tarasov: team allows 0.27 more goals than with its usual starter (≈35 weighted starts) · TB: Andrei Vasilevskiy: team allows 0.22 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈48 weighted starts)
Elo ratingsTB +141 EloTB 69.2%
Market-implied ratingsTB 66.1%Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context
Pre-line forecastTB 66.7%20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend)
ForecastTB 65.7%Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate

Tale of the tape

This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.

Try another venue →
Florida Panthers and Tampa Bay Lightning compared, with each team's league rank
FLAStatTB
19th of 323.1Goals scored3.62nd of 32
25th of 323.3Goals allowed2.62nd of 32
21st of 32−0.2Margin+1.02nd of 32
5th of 3252.9%Shot share51.8%7th of 32
29th of 3288.3%Save percentage90.8%5th of 32
15th of 325–5Last 108–22nd of 32
7th of 3214–11Road vs home16–95th of 32
8th of 321503Opponent Elo149625th of 32
6th of 321529Elo rating15861st of 32

Rating history

Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.

PanthersLightning
14501500155016001650league averageNovFebMayAugNov

Recent form

Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.

Against the line

How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.

This seasonFLATB
Puck line19–3726–28
Last 103–74–6
Favorite8–3316–28
Underdog11–410–0
Overs–unders33–2327–27
Overs–unders, last 107–33–7

Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.

Head to head

FLA 13–7 TB in their last 20 meetings; the forecast called 10 of 20.