Florida Panthers at St. Louis Blues, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors STL; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Panthers- Matthew TkachukGoals2
- Matthew TkachukAssists1
- Matthew TkachukPoints3
Blues- Jordan KyrouGoals1
- Jordan KyrouAssists2
- Jordan KyrouPoints3
Scoring summary
- P319:51Jimmy Snuggerud Goal (8) Snap Shot, assists: Pavel Buchnevich (21), Jordan Kyrou (15)4–5
- P218:39Matthew Tkachuk Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Sam Reinhart (25), Gustav Forsling (18)4–4
- P216:52Matthew Tkachuk Goal (1) Backhand, assists: Eetu Luostarinen (17), Sam Bennett (23)3–4
- P20:41Oskar Sundqvist Goal (4) Slap Shot, assists: Justin Faulk (16)2–4
- P114:27Jonatan Berggren Goal (6) Snap Shot, assists: Justin Faulk (15)2–3
- P19:22Sam Reinhart Goal (27) Wrist Shot, assists: Matthew Tkachuk (4), Uvis Balinskis (8)2–2
- P17:51Jordan Kyrou Goal (12) Wrist Shot, assists: Philip Broberg (14)1–2
- P14:46Jake Neighbours Goal (13) Wrist Shot, assists: Pavel Buchnevich (20), Jordan Kyrou (14)1–1
- P13:12A.J. Greer Goal (11) Wrist Shot, assists: Luke Kunin (2), Sandis Vilmanis (2)1–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P19:22Sam Reinhart Goal (27) Wrist Shot, assists: Matthew Tkachuk (4), Uvis Balinskis (8)FLA 2 – 2 STL · FLA 42% → 58% +16FLA 42% → 58%+16 pts
- P114:27Jonatan Berggren Goal (6) Snap Shot, assists: Justin Faulk (15)FLA 2 – 3 STL · STL 43% → 59% +17STL 43% → 59%+17 pts
- P216:52Matthew Tkachuk Goal (1) Backhand, assists: Eetu Luostarinen (17), Sam Bennett (23)FLA 3 – 4 STL · FLA 15% → 32% +18FLA 15% → 32%+18 pts
- P218:39Matthew Tkachuk Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Sam Reinhart (25), Gustav Forsling (18)FLA 4 – 4 STL · FLA 31% → 55% +24FLA 31% → 55%+24 pts
- P319:51Jimmy Snuggerud Goal (8) Snap Shot, assists: Pavel Buchnevich (21), Jordan Kyrou (15)FLA 4 – 5 STL · STL 50% → >99% +50STL 50% → >99%+50 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Panthers 58%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- FLA 58%
- ML FLA -155 / STL +130
- Pre-line forecast
- FLA 56%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- FLA 54%
- Ratings vs. market
- −4.3 pts
- FLA: Elo 54.0%, market 58.3%
- Fair odds
- FLA -140
- STL +140 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- FLA 3.0 – 2.5 STL
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 5.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | FLA | STL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1538 | 1462 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | −9 | +3 | FLA: Daniil Tarasov: team allows 0.23 more goals than with its usual starter (≈35 weighted starts) · STL: Joel Hofer: team allows 0.09 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈39 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | FLA +28 Elo | FLA 54.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | FLA 56.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | FLA 56.0% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | FLA 58.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| FLA | Stat | STL |
|---|---|---|
| 20th of 323.1 | Goals scored | 2.532nd of 32 |
| 22nd of 323.3 | Goals allowed | 3.529th of 32 |
| 19th of 32−0.2 | Margin | −1.031st of 32 |
| 5th of 3252.9% | Shot share | 47.0%28th of 32 |
| 25th of 3288.6% | Save percentage | 88.4%29th of 32 |
| 9th of 326–4 | Last 10 | 2–829th of 32 |
| 3rd of 3214–10 | Road vs home | 12–1628th of 32 |
| 7th of 321503 | Opponent Elo | 150016th of 32 |
| 6th of 321538 | Elo rating | 146227th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  FLA |  STL |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 19–33 | 25–28 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 8–29 | 1–18 |
| Underdog | 11–4 | 24–10 |
| Overs–unders | 30–22 | 26–27 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 7–3 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
FLA 3–2 STL in their last 5 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 5.