Dallas Stars at St. Louis Blues, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors STL; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Stars- Matt DucheneGoals2
- Jason RobertsonAssists2
- Matt DuchenePoints2
Blues- Jimmy SnuggerudAssists2
- Jimmy SnuggerudPoints2
Scoring summary
- P318:53Thomas Harley Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: Wyatt Johnston (30)4–3
- P315:50Brayden Schenn Goal (12) Wrist Shot, assists: Jimmy Snuggerud (11)3–3
- P36:22Brayden Schenn Goal (11) Wrist Shot, assists: Jimmy Snuggerud (10), Dalibor Dvorsky (5)3–2
- P33:15Robby Fabbri Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Justin Faulk (14), Tyler Tucker (8)3–1
- P218:06Roope Hintz Goal (15) Slap Shot, assists: Jason Robertson (32), Miro Heiskanen (34)3–0
- P24:00Matt Duchene Goal (7) Backhand, assists: Thomas Harley (17), Sam Steel (13)2–0
- P23:20Matt Duchene Goal (6) Tip-In, assists: Mikko Rantanen (45), Jason Robertson (31)1–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P23:20Matt Duchene Goal (6) Tip-In, assists: Mikko Rantanen (45), Jason Robertson (31)DAL 1 – 0 STL · DAL 57% → 74% +17DAL 57% → 74%+17 pts
- P24:00Matt Duchene Goal (7) Backhand, assists: Thomas Harley (17), Sam Steel (13)DAL 2 – 0 STL · DAL 74% → 87% +13DAL 74% → 87%+13 pts
- P36:22Brayden Schenn Goal (11) Wrist Shot, assists: Jimmy Snuggerud (10), Dalibor Dvorsky (5)DAL 3 – 2 STL · STL 5% → 19% +14STL 5% → 19%+14 pts
- P315:50Brayden Schenn Goal (12) Wrist Shot, assists: Jimmy Snuggerud (11)DAL 3 – 3 STL · STL 7% → 48% +40STL 7% → 48%+40 pts
- P318:53Thomas Harley Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: Wyatt Johnston (30)DAL 4 – 3 STL · DAL 51% → >99% +48DAL 51% → >99%+48 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Stars 59%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- DAL 59%
- ML DAL -162 / STL +136
- Pre-line forecast
- DAL 54%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- DAL 57%
- Ratings vs. market
- −2.4 pts
- DAL: Elo 56.9%, market 59.3%
- Fair odds
- DAL -146
- STL +146 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- DAL 3.0 – 2.5 STL
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 5.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | DAL | STL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1541 | 1464 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | 0 | −6 | DAL: Jake Oettinger: team allows 0.00 more goals than with its usual starter (≈49 weighted starts) · STL: Jordan Binnington: team allows 0.15 more goals than with its usual starter (≈47 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | DAL +48 Elo | DAL 56.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | DAL 53.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | DAL 54.2% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | DAL 59.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| DAL | Stat | STL |
|---|---|---|
| 12th of 323.3 | Goals scored | 2.432nd of 32 |
| 4th of 322.8 | Goals allowed | 3.428th of 32 |
| 4th of 32+0.5 | Margin | −1.031st of 32 |
| 24th of 3248.0% | Shot share | 47.0%28th of 32 |
| 6th of 3290.6% | Save percentage | 88.5%28th of 32 |
| 19th of 324–6 | Last 10 | 3–725th of 32 |
| 10th of 3215–13 | Road vs home | 12–1526th of 32 |
| 27th of 321496 | Opponent Elo | 150016th of 32 |
| 4th of 321541 | Elo rating | 146428th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  DAL |  STL |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 21–31 | 24–28 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 11–29 | 1–18 |
| Underdog | 10–2 | 23–10 |
| Overs–unders | 24–28 | 25–27 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–7 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
DAL 6–3 STL in their last 9 meetings; the forecast called 8 of 9.