Buffalo Sabres at Florida Panthers, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors FLA; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Sabres- Peyton KrebsGoals1
- Peyton KrebsAssists2
- Peyton KrebsPoints3
Panthers- Sandis VilmanisGoals1
- Sam ReinhartAssists2
- Sam ReinhartPoints2
Scoring summary
- P317:51Josh Doan Goal (17) Wrist Shot, assists: Peyton Krebs (18), Ryan McLeod (28)5–3
- P35:31Jason Zucker Goal (14) Wrist Shot, assists: Josh Doan (21), Jack Quinn (23)4–3
- P218:59Uvis Balinskis Goal (4) Snap Shot, assists: Sam Reinhart (27), Carter Verhaeghe (26)3–3
- P25:44Zach Benson Goal (7) Wrist Shot, assists: Ryan McLeod (27), Owen Power (13)3–2
- P118:26Peyton Krebs Goal (7) Backhand, assists: Rasmus Dahlin (35), Alex Tuch (26)2–2
- P115:03Tage Thompson Goal (29) Snap Shot, assists: Peyton Krebs (17), Rasmus Dahlin (34)1–2
- P15:54Evan Rodrigues Goal (10) Wrist Shot, assists: Sam Reinhart (26), Tobias Bjornfot (1)0–2
- P10:37Sandis Vilmanis Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: A.J. Greer (10), Niko Mikkola (8)0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P10:37Sandis Vilmanis Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: A.J. Greer (10), Niko Mikkola (8)BUF 0 – 1 FLA · FLA 51% → 65% +14FLA 51% → 65%+14 pts
- P118:26Peyton Krebs Goal (7) Backhand, assists: Rasmus Dahlin (35), Alex Tuch (26)BUF 2 – 2 FLA · BUF 32% → 49% +17BUF 32% → 49%+17 pts
- P25:44Zach Benson Goal (7) Wrist Shot, assists: Ryan McLeod (27), Owen Power (13)BUF 3 – 2 FLA · BUF 49% → 68% +19BUF 49% → 68%+19 pts
- P218:59Uvis Balinskis Goal (4) Snap Shot, assists: Sam Reinhart (27), Carter Verhaeghe (26)BUF 3 – 3 FLA · FLA 27% → 51% +23FLA 27% → 51%+23 pts
- P35:31Jason Zucker Goal (14) Wrist Shot, assists: Josh Doan (21), Jack Quinn (23)BUF 4 – 3 FLA · BUF 49% → 77% +27BUF 49% → 77%+27 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Panthers 51%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 51.2% of 926 graded games.
- Market
- FLA 51%
- ML BUF -105 / FLA -115
- Pre-line forecast
- FLA 57%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- FLA 55%
- Ratings vs. market
- +4.2 pts
- FLA: Elo 55.3%, market 51.1%
- Fair odds
- FLA -104
- BUF +104 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- BUF 3.2 – 3.3 FLA
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | BUF | FLA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1528 | 1532 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +6 | +4 | BUF: Alex Lyon: team allows 0.15 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈42 weighted starts) · FLA: Sergei Bobrovsky: team allows 0.09 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈49 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | FLA +37 Elo | FLA 55.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | FLA 57.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | FLA 57.0% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | FLA 51.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| BUF | Stat | FLA |
|---|---|---|
| 6th of 323.4 | Goals scored | 3.119th of 32 |
| 13th of 323.0 | Goals allowed | 3.321st of 32 |
| 7th of 32+0.4 | Margin | −0.222nd of 32 |
| 23rd of 3248.3% | Shot share | 52.7%5th of 32 |
| 6th of 3290.6% | Save percentage | 88.5%27th of 32 |
| 4th of 327–3 | Last 10 | 5–514th of 32 |
| 11th of 3214–13 | Road vs home | 14–1420th of 32 |
| 19th of 321500 | Opponent Elo | 15038th of 32 |
| 8th of 321528 | Elo rating | 15326th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  BUF |  FLA |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 31–23 | 19–35 |
| Last 10 | 8–2 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 12–13 | 8–31 |
| Underdog | 19–10 | 11–4 |
| Overs–unders | 27–27 | 31–23 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 7–3 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
BUF 2–7 FLA in their last 9 meetings; the forecast called 5 of 9.