Montreal Canadiens at Buffalo Sabres, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors BUF; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Canadiens- Cole CaufieldGoals2
- Nick SuzukiAssists2
- Cole CaufieldPoints3
Sabres- Owen PowerGoals1
- Tage ThompsonAssists1
- Owen PowerPoints1
Scoring summary
- P319:12Oliver Kapanen Goal (17) Wrist Shot, assists: Noah Dobson (25)4–2
- P310:13Cole Caufield Goal (32) Snap Shot, assists: Nick Suzuki (46), Kirby Dach (4)3–2
- P34:14Cole Caufield Goal (31) Tip-In, assists: Noah Dobson (24), Lane Hutson (47)2–2
- P218:58Noah Ostlund Goal (10) Slap Shot, assists: Alex Tuch (25), Bowen Byram (17)1–2
- P27:36Owen Power Goal (4) Wrist Shot, assists: Tage Thompson (28), Rasmus Dahlin (33)1–1
- P111:20Juraj Slafkovský Goal (21) Wrist Shot, assists: Nick Suzuki (45), Cole Caufield (25)1–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P111:20Juraj Slafkovský Goal (21) Wrist Shot, assists: Nick Suzuki (45), Cole Caufield (25)MTL 1 – 0 BUF · MTL 47% → 63% +16MTL 47% → 63%+16 pts
- P27:36Owen Power Goal (4) Wrist Shot, assists: Tage Thompson (28), Rasmus Dahlin (33)MTL 1 – 1 BUF · BUF 33% → 52% +19BUF 33% → 52%+19 pts
- P218:58Noah Ostlund Goal (10) Slap Shot, assists: Alex Tuch (25), Bowen Byram (17)MTL 1 – 2 BUF · BUF 52% → 75% +23BUF 52% → 75%+23 pts
- P34:14Cole Caufield Goal (31) Tip-In, assists: Noah Dobson (24), Lane Hutson (47)MTL 2 – 2 BUF · MTL 23% → 48% +26MTL 23% → 48%+26 pts
- P310:13Cole Caufield Goal (32) Snap Shot, assists: Nick Suzuki (46), Kirby Dach (4)MTL 3 – 2 BUF · MTL 49% → 81% +32MTL 49% → 81%+32 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Sabres 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 51.2% of 926 graded games.
- Market
- BUF 53%
- ML MTL +105 / BUF -125
- Pre-line forecast
- BUF 54%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- BUF 59%
- Ratings vs. market
- +6.2 pts
- BUF: Elo 59.5%, market 53.2%
- Fair odds
- BUF -114
- MTL +114 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MTL 3.2 – 3.3 BUF
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MTL | BUF | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1507 | 1533 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +2 | +7 | MTL: Jakub Dobes: team allows 0.05 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈28 weighted starts) · BUF: Alex Lyon: team allows 0.18 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈42 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | BUF +67 Elo | BUF 59.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | BUF 52.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | BUF 53.6% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | BUF 53.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| MTL | Stat | BUF |
|---|---|---|
| 4th of 323.5 | Goals scored | 3.56th of 32 |
| 26th of 323.3 | Goals allowed | 3.012th of 32 |
| 14th of 32+0.1 | Margin | +0.45th of 32 |
| 19th of 3249.3% | Shot share | 48.2%22nd of 32 |
| 28th of 3288.4% | Save percentage | 90.6%6th of 32 |
| 12th of 325–5 | Last 10 | 7–34th of 32 |
| 8th of 3214–12 | Road vs home | 17–94th of 32 |
| 5th of 321504 | Opponent Elo | 150017th of 32 |
| 13th of 321507 | Elo rating | 15336th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  MTL |  BUF |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 30–24 | 31–22 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 8–2 |
| Favorite | 6–20 | 12–12 |
| Underdog | 24–4 | 19–10 |
| Overs–unders | 34–20 | 27–26 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
MTL 7–4 BUF in their last 11 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 11.