Vegas Golden Knights at Montreal Canadiens, NHL forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors MTL; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Golden Knights- Pavel DorofeyevGoals2
- Braeden BowmanAssists1
- Pavel DorofeyevPoints2
Canadiens- Jake EvansGoals1
- Mike MathesonAssists1
- Phillip DanaultPoints1
Scoring summary
- OT3:58Jake Evans Goal (6) Backhand, assists: Alexandre Texier (11)2–3
- P316:52Pavel Dorofeyev Goal (24) Tip-In, assists: Ben Hutton (8), Braeden Bowman (12)2–2
- P28:55Cole Caufield Goal (30) Backhand, assists: Noah Dobson (23), Mike Matheson (21)1–2
- P24:24Phillip Danault Goal (2) Tip-In, assists: Zachary Bolduc (10)1–1
- P18:38Pavel Dorofeyev Goal (23) Snap Shot, assists: none1–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P18:38Pavel Dorofeyev Goal (23) Snap Shot, assists: noneVGK 1 – 0 MTL · VGK 52% → 67% +15VGK 52% → 67%+15 pts
- P24:24Phillip Danault Goal (2) Tip-In, assists: Zachary Bolduc (10)VGK 1 – 1 MTL · MTL 30% → 48% +18MTL 30% → 48%+18 pts
- P28:55Cole Caufield Goal (30) Backhand, assists: Noah Dobson (23), Mike Matheson (21)VGK 1 – 2 MTL · MTL 48% → 68% +20MTL 48% → 68%+20 pts
- P316:52Pavel Dorofeyev Goal (24) Tip-In, assists: Ben Hutton (8), Braeden Bowman (12)VGK 2 – 2 MTL · VGK 6% → 50% +45VGK 6% → 50%+45 pts
- OT3:58Jake Evans Goal (6) Backhand, assists: Alexandre Texier (11)VGK 2 – 3 MTL · MTL 50% → >99% +50MTL 50% → >99%+50 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Golden Knights 52%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 51.2% of 926 graded games.
- Market
- VGK 52%
- ML VGK -120 / MTL +100
- Pre-line forecast
- VGK 49%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- VGK 48%
- Ratings vs. market
- −4.6 pts
- VGK: Elo 47.6%, market 52.2%
- Fair odds
- VGK -109
- MTL +109 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- VGK 3.3 – 3.2 MTL
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | VGK | MTL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1520 | 1499 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | −3 | 0 | VGK: Akira Schmid: team allows 0.07 more goals than with its usual starter (≈27 weighted starts) · MTL: Jakub Dobes: team allows 0.01 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈27 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | MTL +17 Elo | MTL 52.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MTL 50.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MTL 50.8% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | VGK 52.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| VGK | Stat | MTL |
|---|---|---|
| 7th of 323.4 | Goals scored | 3.45th of 32 |
| 20th of 323.2 | Goals allowed | 3.426th of 32 |
| 12th of 32+0.2 | Margin | 0.015th of 32 |
| 3rd of 3253.8% | Shot share | 49.4%19th of 32 |
| 31st of 3288.1% | Save percentage | 88.3%30th of 32 |
| 5th of 327–3 | Last 10 | 5–513th of 32 |
| 14th of 3213–13 | Road vs home | 14–1211th of 32 |
| 28th of 321494 | Opponent Elo | 150210th of 32 |
| 9th of 321520 | Elo rating | 149918th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  VGK |  MTL |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 17–34 | 28–24 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 11–33 | 6–20 |
| Underdog | 6–1 | 22–4 |
| Overs–unders | 30–21 | 33–19 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 8–2 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
VGK 3–2 MTL in their last 5 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 5.