Colorado Avalanche at Montreal Canadiens, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors MTL; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Avalanche- Joel KivirantaGoals1
- Jack DruryAssists1
- Brock NelsonPoints1
Canadiens- Nick SuzukiGoals2
- Oliver KapanenAssists2
- Nick SuzukiPoints3
Scoring summary
- P39:55Juraj Slafkovský Goal (20) Snap Shot, assists: Oliver Kapanen (13), Ivan Demidov (34)3–7
- P35:45Alexandre Carrier Goal (6) Snap Shot, assists: Nick Suzuki (44), Kirby Dach (3)3–6
- P34:38Ross Colton Goal (6) Snap Shot, assists: Valeri Nichushkin (18)3–5
- P218:06Joel Kiviranta Goal (2) Snap Shot, assists: Sam Malinski (22), Jack Drury (10)2–5
- P217:16Kirby Dach Goal (6) Snap Shot, assists: Zachary Bolduc (12)1–5
- P216:36Jake Evans Goal (7) Snap Shot, assists: Kaiden Guhle (3), Zachary Bolduc (11)1–4
- P17:33Nick Suzuki Goal (18) Backhand, assists: Oliver Kapanen (12), Mike Matheson (22)1–3
- P15:51Nick Suzuki Goal (17) Snap Shot, assists: Ivan Demidov (33), Lane Hutson (46)1–2
- P14:09Brock Nelson Goal (28) Snap Shot, assists: Josh Manson (18), Samuel Girard (9)1–1
- P10:56Noah Dobson Goal (10) Snap Shot, assists: Lane Hutson (45), Juraj Slafkovský (23)0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P10:56Noah Dobson Goal (10) Snap Shot, assists: Lane Hutson (45), Juraj Slafkovský (23)COL 0 – 1 MTL · MTL 46% → 60% +15MTL 46% → 60%+15 pts
- P14:09Brock Nelson Goal (28) Snap Shot, assists: Josh Manson (18), Samuel Girard (9)COL 1 – 1 MTL · COL 39% → 54% +15COL 39% → 54%+15 pts
- P15:51Nick Suzuki Goal (17) Snap Shot, assists: Ivan Demidov (33), Lane Hutson (46)COL 1 – 2 MTL · MTL 46% → 61% +15MTL 46% → 61%+15 pts
- P17:33Nick Suzuki Goal (18) Backhand, assists: Oliver Kapanen (12), Mike Matheson (22)COL 1 – 3 MTL · MTL 61% → 75% +14MTL 61% → 75%+14 pts
- P216:36Jake Evans Goal (7) Snap Shot, assists: Kaiden Guhle (3), Zachary Bolduc (11)COL 1 – 4 MTL · MTL 86% → 95% +9MTL 86% → 95%+9 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Avalanche 54%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 51.2% of 926 graded games.
- Market
- COL 54%
- ML COL -130 / MTL +110
- Pre-line forecast
- COL 56%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- COL 54%
- Ratings vs. market
- −0.3 pts
- COL: Elo 54.0%, market 54.3%
- Fair odds
- COL -119
- MTL +119 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- COL 3.4 – 3.1 MTL
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | COL | MTL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1586 | 1501 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Rest | −30 | — | COL on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Starting goalies | +9 | +2 | COL: Scott Wedgewood: team allows 0.23 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈40 weighted starts) · MTL: Jakub Dobes: team allows 0.05 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈28 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | COL +28 Elo | COL 54.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | COL 56.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | COL 56.1% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | COL 54.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| COL | Stat | MTL |
|---|---|---|
| 1st of 323.9 | Goals scored | 3.46th of 32 |
| 1st of 322.5 | Goals allowed | 3.326th of 32 |
| 1st of 32+1.4 | Margin | +0.115th of 32 |
| 2nd of 3256.4% | Shot share | 49.3%20th of 32 |
| 1st of 3291.5% | Save percentage | 88.4%29th of 32 |
| 22nd of 324–6 | Last 10 | 5–514th of 32 |
| 2nd of 3215–10 | Road vs home | 15–1211th of 32 |
| 23rd of 321497 | Opponent Elo | 150211th of 32 |
| 1st of 321586 | Elo rating | 150118th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  COL |  MTL |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 27–24 | 29–24 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 26–24 | 6–20 |
| Underdog | 1–0 | 23–4 |
| Overs–unders | 24–27 | 33–20 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
COL 2–3 MTL in their last 5 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 5.