Winnipeg Jets at Florida Panthers, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors FLA; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Jets- Mark ScheifeleGoals1
- Gustav NyquistAssists1
- Mark ScheifelePoints1
Panthers- Eetu LuostarinenGoals1
- Gustav ForslingAssists1
- Eetu LuostarinenPoints1
Scoring summary
- P315:46Mark Scheifele Goal (27) Wrist Shot, assists: Kyle Connor (38), Gustav Nyquist (9)2–1
- P38:34Cole Perfetti Goal (5) Wrist Shot, assists: Gabriel Vilardi (27), Adam Lowry (9)1–1
- P114:40Eetu Luostarinen Goal (6) Tip-In, assists: Evan Rodrigues (15), Gustav Forsling (19)0–1
Turning points
The 3 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P114:40Eetu Luostarinen Goal (6) Tip-In, assists: Evan Rodrigues (15), Gustav Forsling (19)WPG 0 – 1 FLA · FLA 56% → 72% +16FLA 56% → 72%+16 pts
- P38:34Cole Perfetti Goal (5) Wrist Shot, assists: Gabriel Vilardi (27), Adam Lowry (9)WPG 1 – 1 FLA · WPG 18% → 47% +29WPG 18% → 47%+29 pts
- P315:46Mark Scheifele Goal (27) Wrist Shot, assists: Kyle Connor (38), Gustav Nyquist (9)WPG 2 – 1 FLA · WPG 48% → 91% +43WPG 48% → 91%+43 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Panthers 57%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- FLA 57%
- ML WPG +124 / FLA -148
- Pre-line forecast
- FLA 62%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- FLA 62%
- Ratings vs. market
- +4.4 pts
- FLA: Elo 61.6%, market 57.2%
- Fair odds
- FLA -134
- WPG +134 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- WPG 2.5 – 3.0 FLA
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 5.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | WPG | FLA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1506 | 1535 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | −15 | +3 | WPG: Eric Comrie: team allows 0.37 more goals than with its usual starter (≈31 weighted starts) · FLA: Sergei Bobrovsky: team allows 0.08 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈49 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | FLA +82 Elo | FLA 61.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | FLA 62.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | FLA 61.9% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | FLA 57.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| WPG | Stat | FLA |
|---|---|---|
| 23rd of 322.9 | Goals scored | 3.119th of 32 |
| 17th of 323.1 | Goals allowed | 3.323rd of 32 |
| 21st of 32−0.2 | Margin | −0.220th of 32 |
| 22nd of 3248.2% | Shot share | 52.6%5th of 32 |
| 18th of 3289.6% | Save percentage | 88.5%27th of 32 |
| 14th of 325–5 | Last 10 | 6–49th of 32 |
| 30th of 329–17 | Road vs home | 14–1317th of 32 |
| 13th of 321501 | Opponent Elo | 15029th of 32 |
| 15th of 321506 | Elo rating | 15356th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  WPG |  FLA |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 24–29 | 19–34 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 11–22 | 8–30 |
| Underdog | 13–7 | 11–4 |
| Overs–unders | 31–22 | 31–22 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 7–3 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
WPG 3–2 FLA in their last 5 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 5.