Buffalo Sabres at Tampa Bay Lightning, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors TB; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Sabres- Mattias SamuelssonGoals2
- Rasmus DahlinAssists1
- Mattias SamuelssonPoints2
Lightning- Nikita KucherovGoals1
- Nikita KucherovAssists3
- Nikita KucherovPoints4
Scoring summary
- OT4:45Jake Guentzel Goal (25) Snap Shot, assists: Nikita Kucherov (61), J.J. Moser (14)3–4
- P319:34Darren Raddysh Goal (17) Slap Shot, assists: Nikita Kucherov (60), Brandon Hagel (27)3–3
- P314:53Josh Doan Goal (18) Deflected, assists: Tage Thompson (29), Rasmus Dahlin (36)3–2
- P38:53Oliver Bjorkstrand Goal (9) Snap Shot, assists: Darren Raddysh (34), Nikita Kucherov (59)2–2
- P34:08Mattias Samuelsson Goal (11) Wrist Shot, assists: Ryan McLeod (29), Jack Quinn (24)2–1
- P116:53Mattias Samuelsson Goal (10) Wrist Shot, assists: none1–1
- P110:24Nikita Kucherov Goal (29) Wrist Shot, assists: Jake Guentzel (34)0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P34:08Mattias Samuelsson Goal (11) Wrist Shot, assists: Ryan McLeod (29), Jack Quinn (24)BUF 2 – 1 TB · BUF 42% → 70% +27BUF 42% → 70%+27 pts
- P38:53Oliver Bjorkstrand Goal (9) Snap Shot, assists: Darren Raddysh (34), Nikita Kucherov (59)BUF 2 – 2 TB · TB 25% → 56% +32TB 25% → 56%+32 pts
- P314:53Josh Doan Goal (18) Deflected, assists: Tage Thompson (29), Rasmus Dahlin (36)BUF 3 – 2 TB · BUF 46% → 87% +42BUF 46% → 87%+42 pts
- P319:34Darren Raddysh Goal (17) Slap Shot, assists: Nikita Kucherov (60), Brandon Hagel (27)BUF 3 – 3 TB · TB <1% → 51% +51TB <1% → 51%+51 pts
- OT4:45Jake Guentzel Goal (25) Snap Shot, assists: Nikita Kucherov (61), J.J. Moser (14)BUF 3 – 4 TB · TB 51% → >99% +49TB 51% → >99%+49 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Lightning 64%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 62.4% of 599 graded games.
- Market
- TB 64%
- ML BUF +170 / TB -205
- Pre-line forecast
- TB 68%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- TB 68%
- Ratings vs. market
- +3.3 pts
- TB: Elo 67.8%, market 64.5%
- Fair odds
- TB -181
- BUF +181 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- BUF 2.8 – 3.7 TB
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | BUF | TB | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1532 | 1584 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Rest | −30 | — | BUF on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Starting goalies | −2 | +10 | BUF: Colten Ellis: team allows 0.05 more goals than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · TB: Andrei Vasilevskiy: team allows 0.25 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈48 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | TB +129 Elo | TB 67.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | TB 67.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | TB 67.9% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | TB 64.5% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| BUF | Stat | TB |
|---|---|---|
| 5th of 323.5 | Goals scored | 3.62nd of 32 |
| 14th of 323.0 | Goals allowed | 2.62nd of 32 |
| 6th of 32+0.4 | Margin | +1.02nd of 32 |
| 24th of 3248.0% | Shot share | 51.7%8th of 32 |
| 6th of 3290.7% | Save percentage | 90.8%5th of 32 |
| 4th of 327–3 | Last 10 | 8–22nd of 32 |
| 9th of 3215–13 | Road vs home | 15–96th of 32 |
| 18th of 321501 | Opponent Elo | 149527th of 32 |
| 7th of 321532 | Elo rating | 15841st of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  BUF |  TB |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 32–23 | 26–27 |
| Last 10 | 8–2 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 12–13 | 16–27 |
| Underdog | 20–10 | 10–0 |
| Overs–unders | 28–27 | 26–27 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 3–7 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
BUF 4–3 TB in their last 7 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 7.