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Boston Bruins at Florida Panthers, NHL forecast

Final/SOTNT, HBO Max

Away

Bruins

32-20-5

4–5

at

Home

Panthers

29-24-3

BOS 41%FLA 59%

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Amerant Bank Arena · TNT, HBO Max

Win probability

Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors FLA; hover for each play.

FLA favored BOS favored8 scoring plays
P1P2P3FLA50%BOS

Game center

From the ESPN box score.

Top performers

Panthers

Scoring summary

  • SO0:00Brad Marchand Goal Backhand1–2
  • SO0:00Viktor Arvidsson Goal Backhand1–2
  • SO0:00Anton Lundell Goal Backhand1–2
  • P310:30Casey Mittelstadt Goal (12) Wrist Shot, assists: David Pastrnak (49), Morgan Geekie (22)4–4
  • P37:52Mark Kastelic Goal (9) Deflected, assists: Charlie McAvoy (35), Hampus Lindholm (15)3–4
  • P218:33Anton Lundell Goal (16) Tip-In, assists: Sam Reinhart (28)2–4
  • P22:47Matthew Tkachuk Goal (3) Backhand, assists: Anton Lundell (23), Uvis Balinskis (9)2–3
  • P20:30Uvis Balinskis Goal (5) Snap Shot, assists: Matthew Tkachuk (5), Anton Lundell (22)2–2
  • P112:43Michael Eyssimont Goal (8) Wrist Shot, assists: Marat Khusnutdinov (14), Andrew Peeke (8)2–1
  • P17:18Michael Eyssimont Goal (7) Wrist Shot, assists: Alex Steeves (7), Hampus Lindholm (14)1–1
  • P14:22Eetu Luostarinen Goal (7) Wrist Shot, assists: none0–1

Turning points

The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.

  1. P17:18Michael Eyssimont Goal (7) Wrist Shot, assists: Alex Steeves (7), Hampus Lindholm (14)BOS 1 – 1 FLA · BOS 27% → 41% +14
  2. P112:43Michael Eyssimont Goal (8) Wrist Shot, assists: Marat Khusnutdinov (14), Andrew Peeke (8)BOS 2 – 1 FLA · BOS 42% → 58% +16
  3. P20:30Uvis Balinskis Goal (5) Snap Shot, assists: Matthew Tkachuk (5), Anton Lundell (22)BOS 2 – 2 FLA · FLA 40% → 58% +18
  4. P22:47Matthew Tkachuk Goal (3) Backhand, assists: Anton Lundell (23), Uvis Balinskis (9)BOS 2 – 3 FLA · FLA 57% → 74% +17
  5. P310:30Casey Mittelstadt Goal (12) Wrist Shot, assists: David Pastrnak (49), Morgan Geekie (22)BOS 4 – 4 FLA · BOS 16% → 46% +31

The pick

Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.

Panthers 59%

LeanHit
BOS 41%FLA 59%

Forecast Elo ratings alone

How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.

Market
FLA 59%
ML BOS +136 / FLA -162
Pre-line forecast
FLA 60%
Elo + market-implied
Elo ratings
FLA 59%
Ratings vs. market
−0.1 pts
FLA: Elo 59.2%, market 59.3%
Fair odds
FLA -146
BOS +146 · the forecast as odds, no margin
Pregame projection
BOS 3.0 – 3.5 FLA
Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5

How the number is built

Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.

FactorBOSFLAWhy
Team rating15031528Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average
Home field—+35Worth 35 Elo in the NHL
Starting goalies−3+2BOS: Joonas Korpisalo: team allows 0.09 more goals than with its usual starter (≈42 weighted starts) · FLA: Sergei Bobrovsky: team allows 0.05 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈49 weighted starts)
Elo ratingsFLA +65 EloFLA 59.2%
Market-implied ratingsFLA 60.2%Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context
Pre-line forecastFLA 60.0%20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend)
ForecastFLA 59.3%Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate

Tale of the tape

This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.

Try another venue →
Boston Bruins and Florida Panthers compared, with each team's league rank
BOSStatFLA
7th of 323.4Goals scored3.119th of 32
17th of 323.2Goals allowed3.324th of 32
9th of 32+0.3Margin−0.224th of 32
27th of 3247.4%Shot share53.0%5th of 32
12th of 3290.0%Save percentage88.3%28th of 32
4th of 327–3Last 104–619th of 32
22nd of 3211–14Road vs home14–1523rd of 32
16th of 321501Opponent Elo15045th of 32
18th of 321503Elo rating15287th of 32

Rating history

Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.

BruinsPanthers
1450150015501600league averageNovFebMayAugNov

Recent form

Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.

Against the line

How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.

This seasonBOSFLA
Puck line36–2019–36
Last 106–43–7
Favorite8–108–32
Underdog28–1011–4
Overs–unders32–2432–23
Overs–unders, last 107–37–3

Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.

Head to head

BOS 8–7 FLA in their last 15 meetings; the forecast called 5 of 15.