Toronto Maple Leafs at Edmonton Oilers, NHL forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors EDM; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Maple Leafs- Matias MaccelliGoals2
- Matthew KniesAssists1
- Matias MaccelliPoints2
Oilers- Kasperi KapanenGoals1
- Vasily PodkolzinAssists1
- Kasperi KapanenPoints1
Scoring summary
- P317:22Bobby McMann Goal (19) Wrist Shot, assists: Auston Matthews (22)5–2
- P38:13Matias Maccelli Goal (10) Snap Shot, assists: Max Domi (22), Oliver Ekman-Larsson (26)4–2
- P37:42John Tavares Goal (20) Tip-In, assists: William Nylander (34), Matthew Knies (32)3–2
- P34:27Kasperi Kapanen Goal (4) Snap Shot, assists: Vasily Podkolzin (12), Ty Emberson (10)2–2
- P211:18Matthew Knies Goal (14) Backhand, assists: Nicolas Roy (15)2–1
- P211:09Jake Walman Goal (5) Slap Shot, assists: Josh Samanski (2), Jack Roslovic (9)1–1
- P27:12Matias Maccelli Goal (9) Tip-In, assists: Jake McCabe (15)1–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P27:12Matias Maccelli Goal (9) Tip-In, assists: Jake McCabe (15)TOR 1 – 0 EDM · TOR 40% → 60% +19TOR 40% → 60%+19 pts
- P211:09Jake Walman Goal (5) Slap Shot, assists: Josh Samanski (2), Jack Roslovic (9)TOR 1 – 1 EDM · EDM 38% → 59% +21EDM 38% → 59%+21 pts
- P211:18Matthew Knies Goal (14) Backhand, assists: Nicolas Roy (15)TOR 2 – 1 EDM · TOR 41% → 62% +21TOR 41% → 62%+21 pts
- P34:27Kasperi Kapanen Goal (4) Snap Shot, assists: Vasily Podkolzin (12), Ty Emberson (10)TOR 2 – 2 EDM · EDM 29% → 57% +28EDM 29% → 57%+28 pts
- P37:42John Tavares Goal (20) Tip-In, assists: William Nylander (34), Matthew Knies (32)TOR 3 – 2 EDM · TOR 44% → 74% +30TOR 44% → 74%+30 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Oilers 63%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 62.4% of 599 graded games.
- Market
- EDM 63%
- ML TOR +160 / EDM -192
- Pre-line forecast
- EDM 63%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- EDM 62%
- Ratings vs. market
- −0.9 pts
- EDM: Elo 62.2%, market 63.1%
- Fair odds
- EDM -171
- TOR +171 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- TOR 2.9 – 3.6 EDM
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | TOR | EDM | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1507 | 1533 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Rest | −30 | — | TOR on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Starting goalies | +7 | +3 | TOR: Anthony Stolarz: team allows 0.19 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈40 weighted starts) · EDM: Connor Ingram: team allows 0.07 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈24 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | EDM +87 Elo | EDM 62.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | EDM 62.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | EDM 62.7% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | EDM 63.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| TOR | Stat | EDM |
|---|---|---|
| 14th of 323.3 | Goals scored | 3.45th of 32 |
| 28th of 323.4 | Goals allowed | 3.325th of 32 |
| 19th of 32−0.2 | Margin | +0.111th of 32 |
| 29th of 3246.4% | Shot share | 52.4%6th of 32 |
| 15th of 3289.9% | Save percentage | 88.5%27th of 32 |
| 24th of 323–7 | Last 10 | 5–511th of 32 |
| 28th of 3210–15 | Road vs home | 15–1316th of 32 |
| 15th of 321501 | Opponent Elo | 149430th of 32 |
| 16th of 321507 | Elo rating | 15336th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  TOR |  EDM |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 23–33 | 22–34 |
| Last 10 | 3–7 | 3–7 |
| Favorite | 7–24 | 17–31 |
| Underdog | 16–9 | 5–3 |
| Overs–unders | 32–24 | 33–23 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
TOR 3–2 EDM in their last 5 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 5.