Minnesota Wild at Edmonton Oilers, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors EDM; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Wild- Quinn HughesGoals1
- Quinn HughesAssists1
- Mats ZuccarelloPoints2
Oilers- Jack RoslovicGoals1
- Josh SamanskiAssists1
- Ryan Nugent-HopkinsPoints1
Scoring summary
- P314:17Brock Faber Goal (12) Wrist Shot, assists: Matt Boldy (27), Jake Middleton (11)7–3
- P312:43Jack Roslovic Goal (15) Snap Shot, assists: Darnell Nurse (11), Josh Samanski (1)6–3
- P39:42Tyler Pitlick Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Yakov Trenin (12), Vincent Hinostroza (7)6–2
- P215:40Vladimir Tarasenko Goal (14) Wrist Shot, assists: Marcus Foligno (5), Danila Yurov (13)5–2
- P212:29Quinn Hughes Goal (5) Slap Shot, assists: Brock Faber (23)4–2
- P20:35Mats Zuccarello Goal (9) Wrist Shot, assists: Ryan Hartman (11)3–2
- P119:24Kirill Kaprizov Goal (30) Wrist Shot, assists: Joel Eriksson Ek (24), Mats Zuccarello (23)2–2
- P18:01Ryan Nugent-Hopkins Goal (13) Deflected, assists: Connor McDavid (61), Evan Bouchard (45)1–2
- P16:15Joel Eriksson Ek Goal (14) Wrist Shot, assists: Quinn Hughes (47), Jesper Wallstedt (1)1–1
- P13:16Leon Draisaitl Goal (27) Wrist Shot, assists: none0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P16:15Joel Eriksson Ek Goal (14) Wrist Shot, assists: Quinn Hughes (47), Jesper Wallstedt (1)MIN 1 – 1 EDM · MIN 31% → 46% +15MIN 31% → 46%+15 pts
- P18:01Ryan Nugent-Hopkins Goal (13) Deflected, assists: Connor McDavid (61), Evan Bouchard (45)MIN 1 – 2 EDM · EDM 54% → 69% +15EDM 54% → 69%+15 pts
- P119:24Kirill Kaprizov Goal (30) Wrist Shot, assists: Joel Eriksson Ek (24), Mats Zuccarello (23)MIN 2 – 2 EDM · MIN 30% → 46% +17MIN 30% → 46%+17 pts
- P20:35Mats Zuccarello Goal (9) Wrist Shot, assists: Ryan Hartman (11)MIN 3 – 2 EDM · MIN 47% → 64% +18MIN 47% → 64%+18 pts
- P212:29Quinn Hughes Goal (5) Slap Shot, assists: Brock Faber (23)MIN 4 – 2 EDM · MIN 68% → 84% +16MIN 68% → 84%+16 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Oilers 54%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 51.2% of 926 graded games.
- Market
- EDM 54%
- ML MIN +110 / EDM -130
- Pre-line forecast
- EDM 59%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- EDM 58%
- Ratings vs. market
- +3.6 pts
- EDM: Elo 57.9%, market 54.3%
- Fair odds
- EDM -119
- MIN +119 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MIN 3.1 – 3.4 EDM
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MIN | EDM | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1525 | 1539 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | −7 | −1 | MIN: Jesper Wallstedt: team allows 0.17 more goals than with its usual starter (≈21 weighted starts) · EDM: Tristan Jarry: team allows 0.02 more goals than with its usual starter (≈44 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | EDM +55 Elo | EDM 57.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | EDM 58.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | EDM 58.6% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | EDM 54.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| MIN | Stat | EDM |
|---|---|---|
| 13th of 323.3 | Goals scored | 3.55th of 32 |
| 7th of 322.9 | Goals allowed | 3.220th of 32 |
| 7th of 32+0.4 | Margin | +0.210th of 32 |
| 21st of 3249.0% | Shot share | 52.2%6th of 32 |
| 2nd of 3291.1% | Save percentage | 88.7%25th of 32 |
| 14th of 325–5 | Last 10 | 6–47th of 32 |
| 5th of 3215–11 | Road vs home | 15–1211th of 32 |
| 27th of 321495 | Opponent Elo | 149331st of 32 |
| 8th of 321525 | Elo rating | 15395th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  MIN |  EDM |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 29–26 | 22–33 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 10–22 | 17–30 |
| Underdog | 19–4 | 5–3 |
| Overs–unders | 32–23 | 32–23 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 9–1 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
MIN 5–3 EDM in their last 8 meetings; the forecast called 5 of 8.